Predicted growth in plastic waste exceeds efforts to mitigate plastic pollution

Predicted growth in plastic waste exceeds efforts to mitigate plastic pollution Stephanie B. Borrelle Jeremy Ringma Kara Lavender Law Cole C. Monnahan Laurent Lebreton Alexis McGivern Erin L. Murphy Jenna Jambeck George H. Leonard Michelle A. Hilleary Marcus Eriksen Hugh P. Possingham Hannah De Frond Leah R. Gerber Beth Polidoro Akbar Tahir Miranda Bernard Nicholas J. Mallos Megan Barnes Chelsea M. Rochman

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Predicted growth in plastic waste exceeds efforts to mitigate plastic pollution 2020 Science 10.1126/science.aba3656 borrelle2020-predicted-growth-in-plastic-waste borrelle2020-predicted-growth-in-plastic-waste.txt, the project's staged copy 060efb8bec35974c467a396372525e22079be19b public-domain environmental-science

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0 spans located by searching the stored text for the quote's exact words, allowing any whitespace between them how much plastic enters the world's rivers, lakes and oceans each year, and whether any combination of the mitigation strategies now being adopted can bring that number down by 2030 Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. what level of effort in waste reduction, waste management and environmental recovery would be needed to hold emissions below a stated target, given projected growth Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. a mechanistic model over 173 countries showing that 19 to 23 Mt entered aquatic ecosystems in 2016, that the world's existing ambitious commitments still leave 20 to 53 Mt/year in 2030, and that no single strategy reaches the target alone Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. prediction Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. a flux whose measured size depends entirely on where the boundary of 'the environment' is drawn - an order of magnitude between emissions to the ocean and emissions to aquatic ecosystems Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. computational-model computational-model Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. no environmentally acceptable level of plastic emission has ever been defined, so the paper sets its target to the 2010 ocean figure - chosen because that number galvanized global action. Every statement of the form `the effort required to reach the target` is therefore an effort required to return to a past level, not to a safe one, and the authors say so in the sentence that adopts it a target with no threshold behind it Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. river emissions to the ocean run 0.8 to 2.7 Mt/year; emissions to aquatic ecosystems run 19 to 23. The difference is not measurement, it is whether a lake or a river is a destination or a conduit - and two papers using the same data can disagree tenfold without either being wrong the boundary is worth an order of magnitude Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. reduction alone needs an 85% cut in waste generation across all income levels; waste management alone needs 99% of plastic waste managed in every country; recovery alone needs 85% of annual emissions pulled back out. Each is stated as a single number, and each is what makes the combined 40/35/25, 99/80/60, 40% package the paper's actual finding three levers, each impossible alone Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. the G7 charter, the EU strategy, UNEP, Clean Seas and the Our Oceans conferences generally lack specific numerical targets and not all countries have made commitments, so the ambitious scenario had to be built by applying reduction targets by income band. THE MODEL'S INPUT IS AN INTERPRETATION OF POLICY, because policy did not supply a number commitments without numbers cannot be modelled Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. waste trade is not counted, primary microplastics are not counted, lost fishing gear is not counted, the informal sector is not counted. The authors state the values may be an underestimate - and every named omission is an input, not an output, so the direction of the bias is knowable even where its size is not the excluded flows all point the same way Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. no environmentally acceptable threshold for plastic emissions has been defined, so the target is a historical figure rather than a safety level Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. the trade of plastic waste is not accounted for, so high-income countries' contributions are misrepresented Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. global-scale data on plastic waste generation, collection and disposal are often lacking or unreliable, with inconsistent reporting, differing methodologies and omitted values Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. primary microplastics, wear particles and wastewater microplastic inputs are excluded Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. the commitments the ambitious scenario is built from generally lack specific numerical targets, and not all countries have made any Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. all commitments to date lack a quantitative model connecting action to a measurable reduction in emissions - which is the gap this paper is filling and also a statement about the evidence available to it Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. downhill flow accumulation from hydrological modelling, used here as a probability that inadequately managed waste reaches the nearest water body Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. World Bank income classification, a development-economics instrument used as the stratifying variable for waste infrastructure Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. the 2016 estimate compared against an independent river-emissions estimate calibrated with field observations eliminates: a model-only number - the paper's figure is checked against a measurement, and the remaining difference is explained by the wider system boundary rather than left standing · outcome: held Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. each of the three strategies pushed to its limit alone, with the other two held at the ambitious level eliminates: the claim that any single lever is sufficient - which the paper notes many stakeholders promote as the best one · outcome: held Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. a Monte Carlo simulation propagating uncertainty in every input parameter and scenario through to the reported ranges eliminates: point estimates presented without their uncertainty, in a model whose inputs the authors elsewhere call unreliable · outcome: held Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. countries stratified by World Bank income status, with waste generation and management parameters adjusted per band eliminates: one global average standing for 173 countries whose waste infrastructure differs by an order of magnitude · outcome: held Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. the achievable recovery rate stated against the required one - 10% called inconceivable, 40% required eliminates: a solution that is arithmetically valid and physically unavailable, which a model can produce without noticing · outcome: failed Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. scenarios for lower targets than 8 Mt, referred to the supplementary materials eliminates: that the projected outcome depends on the particular 8 Mt target chosen rather than on the waste trajectory · outcome (stated by the tagger, no quotation): absent-stated-about-other Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. aquatic ecosystems aquatic ecosystems Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. ocean ocean Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. target scenario target scenario Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. threshold threshold Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. BAU BAU Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. ambitious scenario ambitious scenario Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. waste management waste management Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. recovery recovery Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. reduction reduction Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. trade of plastic waste trade of plastic waste Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. microplastics microplastics Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. plastic emissions plastic emissions Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. Monte Carlo Monte Carlo Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. the target - AS A NUMBER: 8 Mt/year, the estimated global emissions to the oceans in 2010 Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. the target - AS A JUSTIFICATION: not an environmentally acceptable threshold, which the authors say has yet to be defined, but the figure that galvanized global action by a variety of stakeholders Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. plastic emissions - TO THE OCEAN: 0.8 to 2.7 Mt/year from rivers, the figure this paper says its own estimate is consistent with Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. plastic emissions - TO AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS: 19 to 23 Mt/year, larger because lakes and rivers are counted as destinations and not only as conduits Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. the ambitious scenario - AS A NAME: what the world's governments, G7 charter, EU strategy and UN programmes have already committed to Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. the ambitious scenario - AS AN OUTCOME: 20 to 53 Mt/year in 2030, at or above 2016 levels, despite tremendous reduction efforts Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. extends → the river-emissions estimate of 0.8 to 2.7 Mt/year to the global oceans, by widening the system boundary to lakes and rivers as destinations Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. critiques → the world's existing plastic commitments, which lack specific numerical targets and no quantitative model connecting them to a measurable reduction Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. critiques → the promotion by stakeholders of any single mitigation strategy as the best one Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. qualifies → its own estimate, by naming the waste trade, microplastics, fishing gear and the informal sector as excluded inputs and calling the values a likely underestimate Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. predicts → 20 to 53 Mt/year of plastic emissions to aquatic ecosystems in 2030 even under the world's existing ambitious commitments Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. waste management —distinct-from→ recovery waste management recovery differs in: which point in the plastic's life the intervention acts at · the relation itself is separately evidenced · strength of the relation: 0.95 · differs in (stated by the tagger, no quotation): which point in the plastic's life the intervention acts at · the relation stated: waste management alone would need every country to manage 99% of its plastic waste; recovery alone would need 85% of annual global emissions pulled back out - and the paper says neither reaches the target on its own Audit 2026-09-28: DOUBTFUL - read against its span and kept, but the span weighs two strategies; distinct-from is loose. Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. reduction —distinct-from→ waste management reduction waste management differs in: whether the plastic is never made or is caught after it is · the relation itself is separately evidenced · strength of the relation: 0.95 · differs in (stated by the tagger, no quotation): whether the plastic is never made or is caught after it is · the relation stated: reduction alone would need an 85% cut in waste generation across every income level; waste management alone would need 99% of plastic waste managed in every country - and neither reaches the target Audit 2026-09-28: DOUBTFUL - read against its span and kept, but the span weighs two strategies; distinct-from is loose. Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. 19 to 23 Mt, or 11%, of plastic waste generated globally in 2016 entered aquatic ecosystems 19 to 23 Mt, or 11%, of plastic waste generated globally in 2016 entered aquatic ecosystems Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. under the world's existing ambitious commitments, emissions stay at 20 to 53 Mt/year in 2030 - at or above 2016 levels under the world's existing ambitious commitments, emissions stay at 20 to 53 Mt/year in 2030 - at or above 2016 levels Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. no single strategy reaches the target: reduction alone needs 85%, waste management alone 99% managed, recovery alone 85% recovered no single strategy reaches the target: reduction alone needs 85%, waste management alone 99% managed, recovery alone 85% recovered Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. reaching even 10% recovery of annual emissions is called inconceivable without major technological innovation, while the model requires 40% reaching even 10% recovery of annual emissions is called inconceivable without major technological innovation, while the model requires 40% Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. the 8 Mt target is not an environmental threshold - none has been defined - but the 2010 figure that galvanized global action the 8 Mt target is not an environmental threshold - none has been defined - but the 2010 figure that galvanized global action Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. the estimate is larger than the river-to-ocean figure because lakes and rivers are counted as destinations, not only as conduits the estimate is larger than the river-to-ocean figure because lakes and rivers are counted as destinations, not only as conduits Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. increased waste management capacity alone cannot keep pace with projected growth in plastic waste generation increased waste management capacity alone cannot keep pace with projected growth in plastic waste generation Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. the trade of plastic waste is not in the model, so high-income countries' contributions are misrepresented the trade of plastic waste is not in the model, so high-income countries' contributions are misrepresented Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. the paper's system boundary - major rivers, lakes and oceans - and the reason its emission estimate is an order of magnitude above the river-to-ocean figure aquatic ecosystems Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. 8 Mt/year, set to the estimated 2010 global emissions to the oceans because no environmentally acceptable threshold has yet been defined target scenario Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. of plastic waste generated globally in 2016 entered aquatic ecosystems - 19 to 23 million metric tons 11% Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. million metric tons per year by 2030 under the world's existing ambitious commitments 53 Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. million metric tons - the target, and the estimated 2010 emissions to the oceans 8 Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. Monte Carlo Monte Carlo Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. recovery recovery Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. waste management waste management Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution.

The full text of this article is not redistributable, so it is not included here. The evidence sentences are withheld with it; the tag layer and its grounding status remain. The article itself is at https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba3656.