Does the Media Matter? A Field Experiment Measuring the Effect of Newspapers on Voting Behavior and Political Opinions

Alan S Gerber, Dean Karlan, Daniel E. Bergan · American Economic Journal Applied Economics · 2009 · political-economy · 10.1257/app.1.2.35 · record gerber2009-does-the-media-matter-a-field-expe
tag layer · index · concepts · authors · עברית
Where this record's text came from. faceted 2026-08 by reading the locally held text (pdftext); every evidence string verified as an exact substring of that text before merging. Claim type is genuinely mixed: the paper reports prominent null results ('Quotation withheld') alongside a positive vote-choice effect ('Quotation withheld'). I coded the SHAPE of the headline contribution as existence, following the conclusion sentence quoted; a 'null-result' coding would be defensible for the knowledge/slant components. The paper distances its findings from slant-based accounts but names no prior work in doing so, so no contradicts relation was recorded. 2026-08-14 and 2026-08-15 schema-0.3 passes: every quote verified as an exact substring of the staged text and anchored at merge time; concept terms verified present; every edge endpoint an existing node.
How to read this page. The article itself is not reproduced here — this paper is not cleared for redistribution, so what follows is the tag layer alone. The evidence sentences are withheld with the article. The table at the foot lists every tag the record carries; each row names the facet it belongs to, and the whose words column says whether the tag records the paper's own wording or the tagger's sentence about the paper. Every tag links to each other paper in the corpus carrying it. The machine-readable edition of the same thing is the TEI file beside this one, where the tags live in standOff, and the article is at its publisher via the link below. When we have changed our mind. Some entries in the table begin with a word in capitals and the reason for it. EVIDENCE CORRECTED — the finding still stands, but we had quoted the wrong sentence from the paper, and the quotation has been replaced with the right one. RETRACTED — the entry itself was wrong; it stays on the page, marked, with the reason, rather than being deleted. WITHDRAWN AND REPLACED — the entry was wrong, and a corrected version of it appears in the entries below. Each mark carries its own reason, in brackets, because the reasons differ from one entry to the next. An entry we have WITHDRAWN is removed from this page and kept in the record, with its reason. A line reading Audit and a date is a later re-reading of the entry against its whole sentence: DOUBTFUL means it was kept, and the reason says what is loose about it. Quotation marks inside the tagger's sentence. Where a tag is the tagger's own sentence, a phrase in quotation marks inside it is borrowed from the paper — the tagger's wording around it is not. The paper's own sentence is the evidence quote for that row; on this page it is withheld with the article, and the article is at its publisher. Nothing inside quotation marks anywhere on this page is ours: if it is quoted, it is the paper's. Whose words a concept carries. A concept entry records a term the paper itself uses, so the term, the sense given for it, and its evidence are the paper's own words, quoted where the paper fixes them. This is the opposite of a sense entry in the tag table, which is the tagger's sentence about how the paper uses a term. Where a concept entry could not be grounded in the paper's words, the entry says so on its own row.

Tags on this paper

Every tag the record carries, each linking to every other paper in the corpus that carries it. A tag appears here whether or not its words occur in the article — the spans below are only the ones a sentence in this paper licenses. Of the 5 concept tags on this paper, all 5 are grounded in a quoted sentence.
media slant field experiment newspaper provision media exposure turnout Online processing: readers update their candidate evaluations as information arrives but do not retain the facts that moved them, which is why opinions shift while measured knowledge does not Shared content beats slant: both papers covered war casualties and administration scandals during a period bad for Republicans, so what the two papers had in common moved readers in the same direction Continued exposure after the election — leftover subscription weeks plus voluntary renewals — carries the treatment forward and explains why turnout moved in 2006 but not 2005 intent to treat effects Broad Policy index Specific Issue Index free subscription treatment voter turnout strata survey date surveyor ordinary least squares regression and probit probit or ordered probit specifications instead of OLS chi-squared test chi-squared tests of independence multinomial logit regression a multinomial logit model standard error the standard errors of the estimated treatment effects null hypothesis significance test / minimum detectable effect we fail to reject (two-sided, at the five percent level) the null hypothesis of no effect standardization by standard deviations from the mean summing the standard deviations from the mean p-value The lowest p-value for a test of independence behavioural-experiment

Legend

relation to other workclaim_relationshow this paper stands to another: agrees, contradicts, extends, qualifies
claim typeclaim_typethe shape of the claim: existence, mechanism, method, critique, prediction, null
concept edgeconcept_edgesan asserted relation between two concepts, with the sentence asserting it
conceptconceptsan idea the paper works with, quoted where the paper uses it
content tagcontent_tagsa finding, definition, quantity, statistic or variable named in the paper
controlcontrolsan experiment run to eliminate a rival explanation
limitationlimitationswhat the paper says its evidence cannot support
mechanismmechanismshow the reported effect is said to come about
methodmethodhow the paper produced its evidence
phenomenonphenomenonthe effect or regularity under study
sensesensesa distinct use of a term, quoted where the paper fixes it
transfertransfersa method or concept carried in from another field

The paper

The full text is not reproduced here. This article is not cleared for redistribution, so the page carries the tag layer only. Its evidence sentences are withheld; the grounding status remains with each tag, and the article itself is at https://doi.org/10.1257/app.1.2.35. The reading view exists for the papers whose licence permits it.

Every tag on this page

claim_relations 1 · claim_type 1 · concept_edges 2 · concepts 5 · content_tags 34 · controls 1 · limitations 10 · mechanisms 3 · method 1 · phenomenon 1 · senses 4 · transfers 1

Relations on this page carry a quotation for the claim. Where a relation was separately evidenced — and so tested against the vocabulary for its type — the row says so; none of 2 relations here carry that mark. The rest are the tagger’s reading of the sentence quoted beside them.

facettagfieldconf.whose words
claim_typeexistence
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
claim_typethe paper's words
phenomenonmedia effects on voting behavior
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
phenomenonthe paper's words
methodbehavioural-experiment
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
methodthe paper's words
mechanismsmechanisms
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
mechanisms[0]the tagger's words
mechanismsmechanisms
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
mechanisms[1]the tagger's words
mechanismsmechanisms
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
mechanisms[2]the tagger's words
limitationsSmall sample, so treatment effects are estimated imprecisely.
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
what this limits: the precision of every treatment effect: THE MOST IMPORTANT [limitation] OF WHICH IS THE RELATIVELY SMALL SAMPLE SIZE
limitations[0]the tagger's words
limitationsDelivery was randomised but actual reading could not be verified.
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
what this limits: the interpretation of the treatment itself: WE KNOW WHICH HOUSEHOLDS RECEIVED NEWSPAPERS, [but] WE CANNOT BE SURE THAT THE NEWSPAPERS WERE READ
limitations[1]the tagger's words
limitationsAttrition on unobservables could bias the estimates.
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
what this limits: the unbiasedness of the estimates: IF THERE IS ATTRITION BASED ON UNOBSERVED VARIABLES THAT ARE CORRELATED WITH THE OUTCOME MEASURES BUT NOT PREDICTED BY THE OBSERVABLES, OUR RESULTS MAY BE BIASED
limitations[2]the tagger's words
limitationsThe sample frame excludes existing subscribers, so the estimated effect applies to an unusually low-media-exposure population.
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
what this limits: the population the effect applies to: WE ARE STUDYING INDIVIDUALS WHO DO NOT ALREADY SUBSCRIBE TO A NEWSPAPER, HENCE ARE EXAMINING THE EFFECT OF EXPOSING INDIVIDUALS WHO, ON AVERAGE, ARE LESS EXPOSED TO THE MEDIA THAN THE A[verage]
limitations[3]the tagger's words
limitationsThe turnout effect appeared only in 2006 and was of borderline significance, so both the effect and its mechanism are held provisional.
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
what this limits: the turnout result specifically: BOTH THE EXISTENCE OF AN EFFECT AND ITS POTENTIAL MECHANISM SHOULD BE TREATED GUARDEDLY UNTIL FURTHER STUDY
limitations[4]the tagger's words
limitationsWhat was randomised is delivery, not reading: the authors state they cannot be sure the newspapers were read.
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
what this limits: reading the estimates as effects of newspaper EXPOSURE: the randomisation assigned delivery, and the authors state they cannot be sure the papers were read
limitations[5]1.0the tagger's words
limitationsThe authors name small sample size as their most important limitation, with consequences for the standard errors.
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
what this limits: treating a null result here as evidence of no effect: the authors name the relatively small sample size as their most important limitation, with 1,081 survey interviews and 2,571 merged records
limitations[6]1.0the tagger's words
limitationsThe orthogonality claim is conditional: unobservables correlated with the outcome but unpredicted by the observables would still bias the result.
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
what this limits: the randomisation as guaranteeing unbiasedness of these particular estimates: the authors state results may still be biased through unobservables not predicted by the observed covariates
limitations[7]1.0the tagger's words
limitationsJust under a third of the assigned sample supplied the survey outcomes.
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
what this limits: the follow-up survey as covering the assigned sample: 1,081 of the 3,347 individuals were reinterviewed for it
limitations[8]1.0the tagger's words
limitationsWHAT WAS RANDOMISED IS DELIVERY, NOT READING, and the authors say so plainly: they know which households received newspapers but cannot be sure the newspapers were read. The treatment the design controls is not the treatment the theory is about, and the gap is bridged by three self-reported survey measures.
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
limitations[9]0.95the tagger's words
transfersThe online-processing model of attitude formation, taken from psychological work on impression formation and persuasion, is used to explain why candidate preference moved without any measurable gain in factual knowledge
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
transfers[0]the tagger's words
controlshouseholds randomly assigned to a third arm that was sent NEITHER newspaper, alongside the Post and Times subscription arms
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
eliminates: prior political interest and everything else that differs between people who read a paper and people who do not - random assignment makes the untreated arm comparable in expectation, which observational media studies cannot do · outcome (stated by the tagger, no quotation): held
controls[0]0.95the tagger's words
conceptsmedia slant
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
also in: media slant
concepts[0]the paper's words
conceptsfield experiment
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
concepts[1]the paper's words
conceptsnewspaper provision
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
concepts[2]the paper's words
conceptsmedia exposure
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
concepts[3]0.95the paper's words
conceptsturnout
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
also in: turnout
concepts[4]0.95the paper's words
sensestreatment - AS ASSIGNMENT: which households were sent a free subscription, which is the thing actually randomised
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
senses[0]1.0the tagger's words
sensestreatment - AS EXPOSURE: whether the newspaper was read, which the paper states it cannot be sure of and can only proxy through three survey measures
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
senses[1]1.0the tagger's words
sensesmedia effect - separated into SLANT and EXPOSURE, with the paper reporting that slant mattered less than exposure in this case
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
senses[2]1.0the tagger's words
senseseffect of newspapers - measured on four outcomes that came apart: NO effect on political knowledge, stated opinions, or 2005 turnout; an effect on candidate support; and weaker evidence of an effect on 2006 turnout
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
senses[3]0.95the tagger's words
claim_relationsreplicates → Gentzkow (2006)
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
claim_relations[0]the tagger's words
concept_edgesmedia slant —distinct-from→ media exposure
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
differs in: WHICH ONE THE EXPERIMENT COULD MOVE THE OUTCOME WITH. Both papers - the conservative Times and the liberal Post - produced more support for the DEMOCRATIC candidate, so the effect cannot be attributed to slant. The design separates the two by giving opposite slants and finding the same direction · strength of the relation: 0.9 · note: THE FINDING IS A NULL ON THE VARIABLE THE STUDY WAS DESIGNED AROUND. Slant is what the two-newspaper design exists to test, and it is the one thing that did not matter - 'media slant mattered less in this case than media exposure'.
concept_edges[0]0.95the tagger's words
concept_edgesnewspaper provision —causes→ turnout
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
strength of the relation: 0.6 — the record marks this weak · note: Reported at the weakest grade the paper uses - 'SOME EVIDENCE from voting records ALSO SUGGESTS' - and the record already carries a limitation saying the turnout effect appeared only in 2006 and was of borderline significance. Audit 2026-09-28: DOUBTFUL - read against its full span and kept, but 'Some evidence ... suggests' increased 2006 turnout; hedged.
concept_edges[1]0.8the tagger's words
content_tagsordinary least squares regression and probit
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.statistics[0]the tagger's words
content_tagschi-squared test
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.statistics[1]the tagger's words
content_tagsmultinomial logit regression
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.statistics[2]the tagger's words
content_tagsstandard error
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.statistics[3]the tagger's words
content_tagsnull hypothesis significance test / minimum detectable effect
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.statistics[4]the tagger's words
content_tagsstandardization by standard deviations from the mean
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.statistics[5]the tagger's words
content_tagsp-value
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
also in: p-value
content_tags.statistics[6]the tagger's words
content_tagsTen weeks of a free newspaper subscription had no detectable effect on political knowledge, stated opinions, or turnout in the 2005 election.
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.findings[0]the tagger's words
content_tagsReceiving either newspaper increased support for the Democratic candidate, so exposure to news rather than the paper's slant drove the effect.
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.findings[1]the tagger's words
content_tagsReceiving the Post raised the probability of voting for the Democrat by 11.2 percentage points among those who voted and by 7.2 percentage points across all respondents.
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.findings[2]the tagger's words
content_tagsThe conservative Washington Times also raised the probability of a Democratic vote, contrary to what a slant-based account predicts.
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.findings[3]the tagger's words
content_tagsThe estimated effects of the two papers cannot be statistically distinguished from one another.
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.findings[4]the tagger's words
content_tagsAdministrative records show turnout in the 2006 election 2.8 percentage points higher in the treatment groups, an effect of only borderline significance.
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.findings[5]the tagger's words
content_tagsNeither newspaper improved respondents' ability to answer factual questions about recent news, individually or in aggregate.
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.findings[6]the tagger's words
content_tagsAbout 17 percent of the Post treatment group had subscribed three months after the free subscription ended.
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.findings[7]the tagger's words
content_tagsRandomization succeeded: no baseline characteristic differed significantly across the three groups, the weakest balance being on gender.
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.findings[8]the tagger's words
content_tagsThe study is underpowered for small effects: turnout effects below 3.6 points, Democratic-vote effects below 7 points, and Post-versus-Times differences below 8.6 points could not have been detected.
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.findings[9]the tagger's words
content_tagsintent to treat effects
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.definitions[0]the tagger's words
content_tagsBroad Policy index
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.definitions[1]the tagger's words
content_tagsSpecific Issue Index
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.definitions[2]the tagger's words
content_tagsfree subscription treatment
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.variables[0]the tagger's words
content_tagsvoter turnout
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
also in: voter turnout
content_tags.variables[2]the tagger's words
content_tagsstrata
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
also in: strata
content_tags.variables[7]the tagger's words
content_tagssurvey date
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
also in: survey date
content_tags.variables[8]the tagger's words
content_tagssurveyor
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
also in: surveyor
content_tags.variables[9]the tagger's words
content_tags3,347 — Households that reported taking neither newspaper at baseline and were randomized into the three arms
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.quantities[0]the tagger's words
content_tags1,081 / 2,571 — Post-election survey interviews, and the number of subjects matched to administrative voting records
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.quantities[1]the tagger's words
content_tags11.2 percentage points ( p , 0.014) — Estimated increase in the probability of voting for the Democratic candidate caused by receiving the Washington Post, among those who reported voting
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.quantities[2]the tagger's words
content_tags2.8 percentage point — Higher 2006 turnout in the treatment groups in administrative records, standard error 1.6 points
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.quantities[3]the tagger's words
content_tagsapproximately 17 percent — Share of the Post treatment group that had bought its own subscription three months after the free trial ended
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.quantities[4]the tagger's words
content_tags6 percent — Share of treatment-group households that cancelled the free subscription, kept in the sample under intent to treat
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.quantities[5]the tagger's words
content_tagsapproximately 92 percentage points — Actual increase in Post exposure produced by the treatment, rather than 100 points, because some control and Times households already received the Post on Sundays
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.quantities[6]the tagger's words
content_tags1,081 of 3,347 — individuals reinterviewed for the post-election follow-up survey
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.quantities[7]the tagger's words
content_tags2,571 — sample size for the data merged with administrative voting records, named as a limitation
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.quantities[8]the tagger's words

Interpretive choices

Tags that could not be placed in the text:

What was deliberately not tagged, and why, is recorded per paper by the tagger. Where a paper has no such record, this page says so rather than implying that nothing was declined.

© 2026 Shir Sivroni · ORCID 0009-0000-2597-2824