Production, use, and fate of all plastics ever made

Production, use, and fate of all plastics ever made Roland Geyer Jenna Jambeck Kara Lavender Law

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Production, use, and fate of all plastics ever made 2017 Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.1700782 geyer2017-production-use-and-fate-of-all-pla geyer2017-production-use-and-fate-of-all-pla.txt, the project's staged copy fc58f8f1967bcfc349eeabd74aaa5fd56bbf6da7 cc-by-nc environmental-science

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0 spans located by searching the stored text for the quote's exact words, allowing any whitespace between them every mass-produced plastic ever manufactured - polymer resins, synthetic fibers and additives - from production through use to end-of-life fate, 1950 to 2015 Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. how much plastic has been made, how much is still in use, and where the rest of it went Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. the first global material-flow account of all mass-produced plastics, including fibers and additives, which had typically been omitted Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. existence Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. the accumulation of non-biodegradable plastic waste in landfills and the natural environment Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. computational-model computational-model Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. mechanisms NON-BIODEGRADABILITY CONVERTS PRODUCTION DIRECTLY INTO STOCK: because none of the commonly used plastics biodegrade, waste accumulates rather than decomposes, so every tonne made is still somewhere unless it was burned Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. mechanisms THE ONLY PERMANENT SINK IS THERMAL DESTRUCTION - combustion or pyrolysis. Recycling and landfill both keep the material in the system, which is why the accounting has an ever-growing discarded stock Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. mechanisms RECYCLING ONLY REDUCES FUTURE WASTE IF IT DISPLACES PRIMARY PRODUCTION, and whether it does is counterfactual and so extremely difficult to establish - the mechanism is stated together with the reason it cannot be measured status: because of its counterfactual nature, this displacement is extremely difficult to establish Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. mechanisms MIXING AND CONTAMINATION DEGRADE THE SECONDARY MATERIAL, so recycled plastic is of limited or low technical and economic value and cannot simply substitute for virgin material Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. mechanisms SUNLIGHT FRAGMENTS RATHER THAN DEGRADES: weathering breaks the material into millimetre and micrometre particles without biodegrading it, which is where microplastics come from Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. mechanisms THE PROPERTY THAT MAKES PLASTIC USEFUL IS THE PROPERTY THAT MAKES IT PERSIST - durability and resistance to degradation are the same fact described from two sides, so the problem is not a defect in the material but its purpose Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. mechanisms PRODUCT LIFETIME DECOUPLES WASTE FROM PRODUCTION IN TIME: packaging leaves use the year it is made while construction plastic leaving use today was made decades ago, when volumes were far lower - so the waste stream's composition is not the production stream's Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. mechanisms THE SHIFT FROM REUSABLE TO SINGLE-USE CONTAINERS DROVE PACKAGING, the largest market, and packaging is the shortest-lived sector - so the market that grew fastest is the one that becomes waste soonest Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. the two largest sources of uncertainty are named: product-category lifetime distributions, and incineration and recycling rates outside Europe and the US Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. waste management data were sparse and of poor quality in many world regions, which is why the sensitivity analysis was run Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. the additives-to-polymer fraction and the sector breakdowns are known only for 2000-2014 and were assumed constant back to 1950 Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. bio-based and biodegradable plastics are excluded from the analysis entirely, at a stated global capacity of 4 Mt Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. the more direct measurement route - solid waste generation combined with waste characterization - was unavailable at the required detail and quality for many countries Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. end-of-life textiles are assumed to be incinerated and discarded with municipal solid waste, on the ground that there is no significant fiber recycling Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. the environmental impact of plastic waste in land-based ecosystems is stated to be largely unknown, in contrast to the marine and freshwater literature Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. fiber and additives production data are not readily available and had typically been omitted from previous analyses - which is the gap this paper fills and also the weakest part of its own inputs Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. the model's 2010 estimate was checked against an independently derived published estimate and matched it to within 1 Mt eliminates: the possibility that the whole material-flow model is mis-specified - an independently derived published estimate for 2010 agrees to within 1 Mt (274 against 275) · outcome: held Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. sensitivity analysis on product lifetimes: moving every category's mean by 1 SD moves cumulative primary waste generation by -4/+5% eliminates: product lifetime assumptions as the driver of the headline totals - moving every category's mean by a full SD moves cumulative primary waste generation only -4/+5% · outcome: held Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. sensitivity analysis on waste management rates: moving incineration and recycling by 5 percentage points moves cumulative discarded waste by -8/+6% eliminates: waste-management rates as the driver of the discarded-plastic total - moving incineration and recycling by 5 percentage points moves it only -8/+6% · outcome: held Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. the 2050 lines are declared forward projections of historical trends and NOT a prediction or forecast - the authors refuse the reading their own figure invites eliminates: the reading that the 12,000 Mt-by-2050 figure is a forecast - it is declared a forward projection of historical trends and explicitly not a prediction · outcome: held Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. results are rounded to the nearest 100 Mt because the analysis is subject to considerable uncertainty - the precision of the reported number is itself chosen to match the uncertainty eliminates: false precision - rounding to the nearest 100 Mt stops a reader treating the reported digits as resolved when the analysis carries considerable uncertainty · outcome: held Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. additives production data are not publicly available and were bought from market research companies, then cross-checked for consistency eliminates: a single commercial source being wrong or self-serving on the additives figures, which are not publicly available - they were cross-checked between providers · outcome: held Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. plastics plastics Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. polymer resins polymer resins Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. synthetic fibers synthetic fibers Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. additives additives Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. material flow model material flow model Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. primary plastics primary plastics Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. secondary plastics secondary plastics Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. recycling recycling Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. incineration incineration Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. discard rate discard rate Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. final disposal final disposal Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. microplastics microplastics Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. packaging packaging Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. product lifetime distributions product lifetime distributions Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. log-normal distributions log-normal distributions Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. sensitivity analysis sensitivity analysis Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. pyrolysis pyrolysis Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. monomers monomers Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. landfills landfills Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. municipal solid waste municipal solid waste Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. PP&A fibers PP&A fibers Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. CAGR CAGR Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. primary plastics - IN THIS PAPER, PLASTIC MADE FROM VIRGIN MATERIAL, defined against `secondary` (recycled) rather than against any chemical property. The whole flow model turns on the distinction, because recycled material re-enters the use phase and would otherwise be counted twice Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. recycling - EXPLICITLY A DELAY, NOT AN AVOIDANCE. The paper defines it by what it does to the flow: material returns to use and reaches final disposal later, and it only reduces future waste if it displaces primary production - which the paper says is extremely difficult to establish because the claim is counterfactual Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. plastic waste `fate` - A THREE-WAY EXHAUSTIVE PARTITION used as the model's accounting identity: recycled, thermally destroyed, or discarded. It is a bookkeeping category, not an environmental one - `discarded` covers both a sanitary landfill and the open ocean Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. confirms → Jambeck et al.'s independently derived estimate of plastic waste generation, which this model reproduces to within 1 Mt (274 against 275 Mt for 2010) Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. distinguishes-from → the direct method of combining solid waste generation data with waste characterization, which the authors could not use because the data are not available at the required detail and quality for many countries Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. recycling —distinct-from→ final disposal recycling final disposal strength of the relation: 0.95 Audit 2026-09-28: DOUBTFUL - read against its span and kept, but the span says recycling delays rather than avoids disposal; distinct-from is loose. Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. product lifetime distributions —operationalised-as→ log-normal distributions product lifetime distributions log-normal distributions strength of the relation: 0.95 Audit 2026-09-28: DOUBTFUL - read against its full span and kept, but endpoint by anaphora: the log-normal distributions are the product lifetime distributions (previous sentence). Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. additives —part-of→ plastics additives plastics strength of the relation: 0.9 Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. monomers —part-of→ plastics monomers plastics strength of the relation: 0.9 Audit 2026-09-28: DOUBTFUL - read against its span and kept, but monomers are used to make plastics; part-of is loose. Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. recycling delays rather than avoids final disposal, and reduces future waste only if it displaces primary production - which is counterfactual and extremely difficult to establish Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. The durability and resistance to degradation that make plastics versatile also make them hard or impossible for nature to assimilate. Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. US plastic recycling has been flat at 9% since 2012 while Europe reached 30% and China 25% in 2014 Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. the share of plastics in municipal solid waste by mass rose from under 1% in 1960 to over 10% by 2005 in middle- and high-income countries Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. 8300 Mt of virgin plastics produced to date; 6300 Mt of plastic waste generated as of 2015, 9% recycled, 12% incinerated, 79% accumulated — None Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. roughly 12,000 Mt of plastic waste in landfills or the natural environment by 2050 if trends continue — None Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. production rose from 2 Mt in 1950 to 380 Mt in 2015, a CAGR of 8.4%, about 2.5 times the CAGR of global GDP over the same period — None Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. 7800 Mt of resins and fibers made 1950-2015, half of it in the last 13 years — None Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. 2500 Mt (30% of all plastics ever produced) still in use; 4900 Mt (60%) discarded and accumulating — None Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. nonfiber plastics are 93% polymer resin and 7% additives by mass — None Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. seven polymer groups account for 92% of all plastics ever made — None Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. China accounts for 28% of global resin and 68% of global PP&A fiber production — None Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. only 10% of recycled plastic has been recycled more than once — None Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. the resin production series fits a second-order polynomial time trend at R2 = 0.9968 and the fiber series a third-order polynomial at R2 = 0.9934 Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. moving all mean product lifetimes by 1 SD changes cumulative primary plastic waste generation by -4/+5% Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. moving incineration and recycling rates by 5% changes cumulative discarded plastic waste by -8/+6% Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. Global recycling Global recycling Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution. incineration rates incineration rates Quotation withheld because this record is not cleared for redistribution.

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