Less than you think: Prevalence and predictors of fake news dissemination on Facebook

Andrew M. Guess, Jonathan Nagler, Joshua A. Tucker · Science Advances · 2019 · political-science · 10.1126/sciadv.aau4586 · record guess2019-less-than-you-think-prevalence-and
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Tags on this paper

Every tag the record carries, each linking to every other paper in the corpus that carries it. A tag appears here whether or not its words occur in the article — the spans below are only the ones a sentence in this paper licenses. Of the 8 concept tags on this paper, all 8 are grounded in a quoted sentence. All carry the tagger's gloss of what the term means in this paper, which is not something the article can license.
fake news hard news links age ideology News Feeds quasi-Poisson digital media literacy a category built by three procedures in sequence behaviour without belief a consent gradient inside the sample the unobserved half of every social media finding CI observational-study
Method, as described: a three-wave YouGov panel linked by consent to Facebook timeline data, with posted domains cross-referenced against journalist- and academic-built lists of fake news publishers, modelled as counts by quasi-Poisson regression with sample-matching weights

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relation to other workclaim_relationshow this paper stands to another: agrees, contradicts, extends, qualifies
claim typeclaim_typethe shape of the claim: existence, mechanism, method, critique, prediction, null
concept edgeconcept_edgesan asserted relation between two concepts, with the sentence asserting it
conceptconceptsan idea the paper works with, quoted where the paper uses it
content tagcontent_tagsa finding, definition, quantity, statistic or variable named in the paper
contributioncontributionwhat the paper claims to add
controlcontrolsan experiment run to eliminate a rival explanation
limitationlimitationswhat the paper says its evidence cannot support
mechanismmechanismshow the reported effect is said to come about
methodmethodhow the paper produced its evidence
object of studyobject_of_studywhat the paper is about — the thing it investigates
phenomenonphenomenonthe effect or regularity under study
research questionresearch_questionthe question the paper sets itself
sensesensesa distinct use of a term, quoted where the paper fixes it
transfertransfersa method or concept carried in from another field

The paper

The full text is not reproduced here. This article is not cleared for redistribution, so the page carries the tag layer only. Its evidence sentences are withheld; the grounding status remains with each tag, and the article itself is at https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau4586. The reading view exists for the papers whose licence permits it.

Every tag on this page

claim_relations 4 · claim_type 1 · concept_edges 2 · concepts 8 · content_tags 17 · contribution 1 · controls 10 · limitations 8 · mechanisms 4 · method 1 · object_of_study 1 · phenomenon 1 · research_question 1 · senses 6 · transfers 2

Relations on this page carry a quotation for the claim. Where a relation was separately evidenced — and so tested against the vocabulary for its type — the row says so; 2 of 2 relations here carry that mark. The rest are the tagger’s reading of the sentence quoted beside them.

facettagfieldconf.whose words
object_of_studywho actually posted links from fake news domains to their Facebook friends during the 2016 US campaign, measured from profile data rather than from what people say they did
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object_of_studythe paper's words
research_questionhow common fake news sharing was, and which individual characteristics predict it once ideology, partisanship, education and overall posting volume are held constant
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research_questionthe paper's words
contributiona survey of 3500 linked to 1191 respondents' real Facebook sharing: over 90% shared no fake news at all, conservatives shared more, and the oldest group shared nearly seven times as much as the youngest with everything else held constant
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contributionthe paper's words
claim_typeexistence
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claim_typethe paper's words
phenomenonthe dissemination of deliberately false political content by ordinary users - rare, concentrated, and predicted by age more robustly than by anything else measured
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phenomenonthe paper's words
methodobservational-study
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methodthe paper's words
mechanismsBuzzSumo ranks domains by Facebook engagement; a journalist checks each for the hallmark features of a fake news site - no contact page, syndicated content, recently registered; a supervised classifier trained on 7 million pages removes anything it calls hard news. Thirty domains become twenty-one, and every share in the dependent variable is a link to one of those twenty-one
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mechanisms[0]0.95the tagger's words
mechanismslinking profile data to a survey removes the self-report bias in what people say they shared, and it cannot recover what they thought they were sharing. The design buys accuracy about the act and gives up access to the state of mind - which is the quantity the survey experiments measure and cannot observe the act of
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mechanisms[1]0.95the tagger's words
mechanisms3500 respondents, 1331 consenting to share profile data, 1191 successfully linked - and the linked respondents were more knowledgeable and more politically engaged than those who declined. The behavioural half of the design is available only from people willing to hand it over, and willingness correlates with the subject matter
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mechanisms[2]0.95the tagger's words
mechanismssharing is a choice made over what arrived. Without the News Feed, a group that shares more fake news may be a group that saw more of it, and no amount of control for the sharer's characteristics separates the two. The authors state this rather than resolving it
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mechanisms[3]0.95the tagger's words
limitationsthere is no measure of whether respondents knew that what they shared was false
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limitations[0]0.95the tagger's words
limitationsthe data are observational and cannot provide causal evidence, and an omitted variable cannot be definitively ruled out
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limitations[1]0.95the tagger's words
limitationshalf the respondents with Facebook accounts declined to share their profile data, and the linked ones were more knowledgeable and politically engaged
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limitations[2]0.95the tagger's words
limitationsthe composition of respondents' News Feeds is unobserved, so exposure cannot be separated from willingness to share
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limitations[3]0.95the tagger's words
limitationsposts deleted before consent are invisible, and the authors argue rather than measure that this should reduce noise rather than bias
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limitations[4]0.95the tagger's words
limitationsthe conservative finding is sensitive to coding and rests on a small number of respondents
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limitations[5]0.95the tagger's words
limitationsthe ideological pattern may reflect the pro-Trump slant of the available content and the ordinary tendency to share what one agrees with, rather than a greater propensity to share falsehood
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limitations[6]0.95the tagger's words
limitationsthere is no commonly accepted ground-truth standard for what counts as fake news, so the dependent variable rests on lists built by journalists and academics
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limitations[7]0.95the tagger's words
transfersdigital trace data linked to survey response, carried from computational social science into a question political science had been answering with self-report
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transfers[0]0.95the tagger's words
transfersa supervised text classifier from information retrieval, used not to make the finding but to draw the boundary of the outcome variable
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transfers[1]0.95the tagger's words
controlsthe total number of links shared of any kind reported beside the fake news count, and included as a covariate in every model
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eliminates: a low fake-news count meaning people do not share links - most respondents shared hundreds, so the rarity is about the content · outcome: held
controls[0]0.95the tagger's words
controlsthe relationship between overall sharing volume and fake news sharing examined directly, rather than only controlled for
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eliminates: the explanation that some respondents will share anything - the heaviest sharers shared LESS fake news, which is the opposite of that prediction · outcome: held
controls[1]0.95the tagger's words
controlsthe same model applied to hard news sharing as a placebo outcome
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eliminates: age predicting online sharing in general - if it did, the predictors of hard news would look the same, and they do not include age at all · outcome: held
controls[2]0.95the tagger's words
controlsfive different lists of fake news domains, including one built from 948 individual fact-checks and one crowdsourced, with the analysis rerun on each
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eliminates: one journalist's list carrying the finding - the category has no ground truth, so the robustness has to be to the choice of vocabulary itself · outcome: held
controls[3]0.95the tagger's words
controlsan exact-URL variant of the analysis using only the 948 fact-checked stories, rather than counting every article from a listed domain
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eliminates: the assumption that everything published by a fake news domain is fake - the stricter definition does not need it · outcome: held
controls[4]0.95the tagger's words
controlshard news domains removed from the list by a classifier trained on 7 million shared pages, so that hyperpartisan sites are excluded from the outcome
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eliminates: the contested hyperpartisan category being counted as fake news, which would make an ideological finding partly definitional · outcome: held
controls[5]0.95the tagger's words
controlsnegative binomial and OLS models run alongside the quasi-Poisson, with the quasi-Poisson chosen by a dispersion test
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eliminates: the count model's distributional assumptions producing the result · outcome: held
controls[6]0.95the tagger's words
controlsideology and party identification, correlated at r = 0.31, entered separately and together, with all three specifications reported
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eliminates: a collinearity decision being made silently in the authors' favour - they name the correlation and publish every version · outcome: held
controls[7]0.95the tagger's words
controlsthe models re-fitted as negative binomial and OLS alongside the Poisson and quasi-Poisson specifications, with dispersion tests deciding between the latter two
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eliminates: that the sharing result is an artefact of one count-model specification · outcome (stated by the tagger, no quotation): held
controls[8]0.95the tagger's words
controlsrespondents asked to check which categories of profile information they were willing to share, with no access to News Feeds or to friends' data
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eliminates: collecting more than was consented to - the field-by-field opt-in bounds the data at the point of collection · outcome (stated by the tagger, no quotation): held
controls[9]0.95the tagger's words
conceptsfake news
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also in: fake news
concepts[0]0.95the paper's words
conceptshard news
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
also in: hard news
concepts[1]0.95the paper's words
conceptslinks
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also in: links
concepts[2]0.95the paper's words
conceptsage
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also in: age
concepts[3]0.95the paper's words
conceptsideology
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also in: ideology
concepts[4]0.95the paper's words
conceptsNews Feeds
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also in: News Feeds
concepts[5]0.95the paper's words
conceptsquasi-Poisson
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
also in: quasi-Poisson
concepts[6]0.95the paper's words
conceptsdigital media literacy
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concepts[7]0.95the paper's words
sensesfake news sharing - AS MEASURED HERE: a post to one's own timeline whose link resolves to one of 21 domains, from profile data, with no measure of whether the sharer believed it
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
senses[0]0.95the tagger's words
sensesfake news - AS DEFINED: knowingly false or misleading content created largely to generate ad revenue, with the authors stating there is no commonly accepted ground-truth standard for the category
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
senses[1]0.95the tagger's words
sensesthe domain list - AS BUILT BY BUZZFEED: 30 domains ranked by Facebook engagement and checked by a journalist for the hallmark features of a fake news site
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senses[2]0.95the tagger's words
sensesthe domain list - AFTER THE HARD-NEWS FILTER: 21 domains, with hyperpartisan sites such as Breitbart removed by a supervised classifier so that the contested category is excluded
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senses[3]0.95the tagger's words
sensesthe conservative effect - AS AN OBSERVATION: conservatives shared the most, and the content was overwhelmingly pro-Trump
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senses[4]0.95the tagger's words
sensesthe conservative effect - AS AN INFERENCE: possibly not a greater tendency to share fake news at all, but the ordinary tendency to share what one agrees with, conditional on exposure the study cannot see
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senses[5]0.95the tagger's words
claim_relationscritiques → post-election narratives about the role of social media disinformation, by measuring how rare the behaviour actually was - over 90% of linked respondents shared none at all
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claim_relations[0]0.95the tagger's words
claim_relationscritiques → self-reported measures of online activity, which the linked design is built to avoid
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claim_relations[1]0.95the tagger's words
claim_relationscritiques → the discipline's habit of treating demographic traits as controls to be conditioned away rather than as explanatory factors in their own right
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claim_relations[2]0.95the tagger's words
claim_relationsqualifies → its own ideological finding - sensitive to coding, based on few respondents, and confounded with exposure the design cannot observe
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claim_relations[3]0.95the tagger's words
concept_edgesfake news —distinct-from→ hard news
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differs in: whether the site is intentionally or systematically factually inaccurate, or merely partisan · the relation itself is separately evidenced · strength of the relation: 0.95 · differs in (stated by the tagger, no quotation): whether the site is intentionally or systematically factually inaccurate, or merely partisan · the relation stated: domains a supervised classifier calls hard news are removed, so that the contested hyperpartisan category is not counted as fake news
also in: fake news · hard news
concept_edges[0]0.95the tagger's words
concept_edgesage —distinct-from→ ideology
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differs in: whether the predictor survives conditioning on the other · the relation itself is separately evidenced · strength of the relation: 0.95 · differs in (stated by the tagger, no quotation): whether the predictor survives conditioning on the other · the relation stated: holding ideology, party or both constant, each age group still shared more than the next-youngest Audit 2026-09-28: DOUBTFUL - read against its span and kept, but age effects hold with ideology held constant; distinct-from is loose.
also in: age · ideology
concept_edges[2]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsover 90% of linked respondents shared no articles from fake news domains during the 2016 campaign
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content_tags.findings[0]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsthe rarity is specific to the content - most respondents shared between 100 and 1000 links of other kinds
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content_tags.findings[1]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsthose over 65 shared nearly seven times as many fake news articles as the youngest group, holding ideology, education and posting volume constant
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content_tags.findings[2]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsthe heaviest sharers overall shared LESS fake news, so the behaviour is not explained by a general willingness to share anything
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content_tags.findings[3]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsthe same model applied to hard news sharing gives varied predictors and does not include age
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content_tags.findings[4]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsThe fake-news list contains 21 mostly pro-Trump domains.
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content_tags.findings[5]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsthe results are essentially invariant across five different lists of what counts as fake news
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content_tags.findings[6]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsthere is no measure of whether respondents knew what they shared was false
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content_tags.findings[7]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsknowingly false or misleading content created largely for ad revenue - with the authors stating that the term covers a variety of phenomena and that no commonly accepted ground-truth standard exists
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also in: fake news
content_tags.definitions[0]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsof linked respondents shared no articles from fake news domains at all - the number the title refers to
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content_tags.quantities[0]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsweb domains constituting the entire dependent variable, after a journalist's list of 30 was filtered by a hard-news classifier
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value source note: THE DESCRIPTION DRAWS ON THE PAPER BEYOND THIS QUOTE: the starting list of 30 is described in the appendix ('Our BuzzFeed-based list began with 30 domains').
content_tags.quantities[1]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsof the 3500 survey respondents agreed to share Facebook profile data; 1191 were successfully linked
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content_tags.quantities[2]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsthe correlation between ideological self-placement and party identification, disclosed and handled by reporting all three specifications
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content_tags.quantities[3]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsquasi-Poisson
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also in: quasi-Poisson
content_tags.statistics[0]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsCI
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also in: CI
content_tags.statistics[1]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsage
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also in: age
content_tags.variables[0]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsfake news
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also in: fake news
content_tags.variables[1]0.95the tagger's words

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