Confidence in value-based choice

De Martino, Fleming, Garrett, Dolan · Nature Neuroscience · 2013 · neuroscience · 10.1038/nn.3279 · record De-Martino2013-confidence-in-value-based-choice
tag layer · index · concepts · authors · עברית
Where this record's text came from. faceted 2026-08 by reading the locally held text (xml); every evidence string verified as an exact substring of that text before merging. The paper is a hybrid of fMRI, behavioural economics (BDM bidding) and computational modelling (a race model simulation); the method vocabulary forces a single tag, so fmri was chosen as the method that carries the neural claim, and the modelling component is not captured. The Insabato citation is named in the immediately preceding sentence but the sentence that states the paper's own relation to it does not repeat the name, so the quoted evidence is the relation sentence. 2026-08-13, 2026-08-15 and 2026-08-25 schema-0.3 passes: every quote verified as an exact substring of the staged text and anchored at merge time; concept terms verified present; every edge endpoint an existing node.
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Other fields define these differently the same word, defined another way in another discipline
confidence 5 fields · logistic regression 3 fields · fmri 2 fields

Tags on this paper

Every tag the record carries, each linking to every other paper in the corpus that carries it. A tag appears here whether or not its words occur in the article — the spans below are only the ones a sentence in this paper licenses. Of the 20 concept tags on this paper, none is grounded in a quoted sentence. All carry the tagger's gloss of what the term means in this paper, which is not something the article can license.
confidence choice confidence bid confidence risk difference in value race model vmPFC rRLPFC metacognitive accuracy willingness-to-pay BDM logistic regression Bayesian information criterion reaction time psychophysiological interaction accumulators second-order reversed noise in the choice process precuneus Confidence arises because evidence for each option accumulates stochastically during value comparison, so trial-to-trial noise makes the final gap between accumulators (and hence confidence, speed and accuracy) vary even at fixed initial value difference. Inter-trial noise in the comparison process drives the joint pattern of confidence, reaction time and accuracy. Confidence computed in vmPFC becomes reportable by being read out by a hierarchically distinct second-order network in rRLPFC. Noise added at the read-out stage degrades the correspondence between reported confidence and actual accuracy, producing individual differences in metacognition. difference in value (DV) psychophysiological interaction (PPI) metacognitive noise signed difference in value choice reaction time Signal in vmPFC change in slope Bayesian information criterion – BIC likelihood ratio test ANOVA t-test one-sample t-tests against zero partial correlation general linear model general linear model (GLM) multiple-comparison correction family wise error correction (FWE) standard error of the mean standard error of the mean (s.e.m.) autocorrelation serial autocorrelation regression model family wise error one-sample t-test fmri

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second readingalternativesan independent re-reading of a facet, recorded whether or not it agrees
relation to other workclaim_relationshow this paper stands to another: agrees, contradicts, extends, qualifies
claim typeclaim_typethe shape of the claim: existence, mechanism, method, critique, prediction, null
concept edgeconcept_edgesan asserted relation between two concepts, with the sentence asserting it
content tagcontent_tagsa finding, definition, quantity, statistic or variable named in the paper
contributioncontributionwhat the paper claims to add
controlcontrolsan experiment run to eliminate a rival explanation
limitationlimitationswhat the paper says its evidence cannot support
mechanismmechanismshow the reported effect is said to come about
methodmethodhow the paper produced its evidence
object of studyobject_of_studywhat the paper is about — the thing it investigates
phenomenonphenomenonthe effect or regularity under study
research questionresearch_questionthe question the paper sets itself
sensesensesa distinct use of a term, quoted where the paper fixes it
transfertransfersa method or concept carried in from another field

The paper

The full text is not reproduced here. This article is not cleared for redistribution, so the page carries the tag layer only. Its evidence sentences are withheld; the grounding status remains with each tag, and the article itself is at https://doi.org/10.1038/nn.3279. The reading view exists for the papers whose licence permits it.

Every tag on this page

alternatives 3 · claim_relations 9 · claim_type 1 · concept_edges 9 · content_tags 77 · contribution 1 · controls 2 · limitations 7 · mechanisms 8 · method 1 · object_of_study 1 · phenomenon 1 · research_question 1 · senses 5 · transfers 5

Relations on this page carry a quotation for the claim. Where a relation was separately evidenced — and so tested against the vocabulary for its type — the row says so; none of 9 relations here carry that mark. The rest are the tagger’s reading of the sentence quoted beside them.

facettagfieldconf.whose words
object_of_studyhow subjective confidence in a choice relates to the value comparison that produced it, in behaviour and in the brain
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object_of_studythe paper's words
research_questionwhether confidence is a read-out of noise in the value comparison, separable from the value difference itself
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research_questionthe paper's words
contributiondissociates confidence from value difference, shows a race model explains their joint relation to accuracy and reaction time, locates both in vmPFC, and predicts individual metacognitive ability from vmPFC-rRLPFC coupling
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contributionthe paper's words
claim_typemechanism
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claim_typethe paper's words
phenomenondecision confidence in value-based choice
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phenomenonthe paper's words
methodfmri
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also in: fmri
methodthe paper's words
mechanismsmechanisms
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mechanisms[0]the tagger's words
mechanismsmechanisms
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mechanisms[1]the tagger's words
mechanismsmechanisms
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mechanisms[2]the tagger's words
mechanismsmechanisms
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mechanisms[3]the tagger's words
mechanismsin the race model confidence is the gap between the two accumulators when one crosses threshold, so it tracks trial-to-trial noise rather than the starting value difference
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mechanisms[4]1.0the tagger's words
mechanismsthe same noise makes a trial faster, more accurate and more confident at once, which is why the three covary without any of them causing the others
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mechanisms[5]1.0the tagger's words
mechanismsbecause confidence follows the stochastic path rather than the initial difference, the model itself explains why value and confidence come apart
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mechanisms[6]1.0the tagger's words
mechanismsa second-order region reads confidence out of the comparison process, and how faithfully it does so varies between people
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mechanisms[7]0.8the tagger's words
limitationsOnly a small, experimentally controllable subset of the factors that could influence confidence was measured.
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what this limits: the account of what drives confidence: WE REPORT A LIMITED SET OF THESE FACTORS ... FOR WHICH WE COULD EXERCISE GOOD EXPERIMENTAL CONTROL
limitations[0]the tagger's words
limitationsThe design cannot adjudicate between confidence emerging in vmPFC and confidence being computed elsewhere and fed into vmPFC; that would need a high-temporal-resolution method such as MEG.
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what this limits: the direction of the vmPFC-rRLPFC relationship: RESOLVING THIS POSSIBILITY IS BEYOND THE DESIGN OF THE CURRENT STUDY AND WILL REQUIRE OTHER TECHNIQUES WITH HIGH TEMPORAL RESOLUTION
limitations[1]the tagger's words
limitationsAlternative functional mappings from model confidence to reported confidence were not explored.
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what this limits: the model-to-report mapping: OTHER FUNCTIONAL FORMS FOR THE LINK BETWEEN MODEL CONFIDENCE AND REPORTED CONFIDENCE ARE POSSIBLE, BUT WE DO NOT INVESTIGATE THESE HERE
limitations[2]the tagger's words
limitationsthe authors state that only a limited set of the factors affecting confidence could be controlled
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what this limits: the same scope as limitations[0] - other internal and external factors ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT SUBJECTIVE CONFIDENCE and were not measured
limitations[3]1.0the tagger's words
limitationsthe direction of the vmPFC-rRLPFC relation is not resolvable by fMRI; confidence could be computed elsewhere and imported
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what this limits: the same scope as limitations[1], with the alternative stated: confidence may be CODED ELSEWHERE ... AND IS THEN COMMUNICATED TO vmPFC
limitations[4]1.0the tagger's words
limitations8 of 28 participants were excluded, including one for not varying their confidence ratings enough to estimate the measure of interest
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what this limits: the sample every metacognitive estimate rests on, which is conditioned on the measure itself: PARTICIPANTS WERE ONLY INCLUDED IF THEY USED A SUFFICIENT RANGE OF CONFIDENCE RATINGS (STANDARD DEVIATION > 0.8) TO ALLOW ESTIMATION OF METACOGNITIVE ABILITY
limitations[5]1.0the tagger's words
limitationsvalue is measured after scanning by a separate bidding task, so choice and value come from different sessions
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what this limits: any joint use of choice and value: value was elicited AT THE END OF THE SCANNING SESSION by a separate BDM bidding task, so the two come from different sessions and instruments
limitations[6]0.9the tagger's words
transfersthe BDM incentive-compatible auction, used to elicit each participant's willingness-to-pay as an objective measure of item value
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transfers[0]the tagger's words
transfersthe idea that confidence is a second-order metacognitive judgement measurable separately from the choice itself, imported into value-based choice
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transfers[1]the tagger's words
transfersthe second-order framing of confidence and the requirement to measure it separately from choice
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transfers[2]1.0the tagger's words
transfersthe BDM auction, used to make stated values incentive-compatible
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transfers[3]1.0the tagger's words
transfersthe race model, imported from perceptual choice into value-based choice
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transfers[4]1.0the tagger's words
controlseach item pair was presented twice with the left-right position counterbalanced
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eliminates: that a choice or a confidence rating is driven by which side of the screen an item appeared on · outcome (stated by the tagger, no quotation): held
controls[0]0.95the tagger's words
controlsconfidence for repeated pairs was correlated across repetitions with the value difference partialled out
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eliminates: that apparent confidence stability is just the value difference reappearing - that subjects are re-reading the same easy choice rather than holding a stable confidence · outcome (stated by the tagger, no quotation): held
controls[1]0.95the tagger's words
sensesconfidence here is NOT risk: every option has a known outcome, so this is certainty about having picked the better item, not uncertainty about what will happen
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senses[0]1.0the tagger's words
senseschoice confidence (second order, about the comparison) versus bid confidence (first order, about each item's value) - two senses of one word, measured separately and adjudicated by model comparison
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senses[1]1.0the tagger's words
sensesmetacognitive accuracy is operationalised as the CHANGE in logistic slope between low and high confidence trials, not as calibration or correlation
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senses[2]1.0the tagger's words
sensesthe slope of the logistic fit is read as choice accuracy AND as noise in the choice process - one number, two descriptions, used interchangeably
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senses[3]1.0the tagger's words
sensesvalue here means willingness-to-pay elicited by a BDM auction after scanning, not a rating and not a preference order
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senses[4]1.0the tagger's words
alternativesclaim_type: mechanism
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a second reading reaching the same value. Recorded: mechanism — note: a second reading reaching the same value from a different sentence. Not applied - a person decides.
alternatives.claim_typethe tagger's words
alternativesmethod: fMRI during binary snack choice with trial-by-trial confidence report, values elicited afterwards by an incentive-compatible bidding procedure, logistic model comparison and a race model
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a second reading DIFFERING from the recorded value. Recorded: fmri — note: a second reading, verbatim-verified, disagreeing with the value on the record. Not applied - a person decides.
alternatives.methodthe tagger's words
alternativesphenomenon: decision confidence: subjective certainty in having chosen the better of two options
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a second reading DIFFERING from the recorded value. Recorded: decision confidence in value-based choice — note: a second reading, verbatim-verified, disagreeing with the value on the record. Not applied - a person decides.
alternatives.phenomenonthe tagger's words
claim_relationsbuilds-on → the race model of evidence accumulation and decision confidence (refs 7, 21)
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claim_relations[0]the tagger's words
claim_relationsbuilds-on → Insabato et al.'s two-layer neural network account of confidence read-out (ref 18)
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claim_relations[1]the tagger's words
claim_relationsextends → earlier studies that defined decision confidence in terms of the factors governing choice (rat orbitofrontal firing rates, ref 7; human vmPFC fMRI, ref 8)
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claim_relations[2]the tagger's words
claim_relationscritiques → earlier studies that defined confidence through the factors governing choice, which cannot separate confidence from value
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differs in: THE AXIS IS HOW CONFIDENCE IS DEFINED. 'Quotation withheld' The earlier work is not wrong about what it measured - its definition makes one question unaskable, which is a critique of scope rather than of result.
claim_relations[3]1.0the tagger's words
claim_relationsextends → the perceptual decision-making tradition of measuring confidence independently of choice
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claim_relations[4]1.0the tagger's words
claim_relationsextends → race models of decision confidence, applied here to value-based rather than perceptual choice
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claim_relations[5]1.0the tagger's words
claim_relationssupports → the account of vmPFC as a dynamic accumulator of choice values
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claim_relations[6]1.0the tagger's words
claim_relationssupports → two-layer architectures in which a second-order network reads out first-order performance
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claim_relations[7]0.9the tagger's words
claim_relationsgeneralises → rRLPFC's role in metacognition from perceptual to value-based decisions
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claim_relations[8]0.9the tagger's words
concept_edgesconfidence —distinct-from→ risk
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strength of the relation: 1 · note: CRITERION, stated: every option here determines a known outcome, so there is nothing to be risky about
also in: confidence · risk
concept_edges[0]1.0the tagger's words
concept_edgeschoice confidence —distinct-from→ bid confidence
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strength of the relation: 1 · note: CRITERION, and it is TESTED: model comparison shows the second-order measure modulates choice and the first-order one does not Audit 2026-09-28: DOUBTFUL - read against its full span and kept, but the span writes '2nd level confidence' and '1st level confidence in the item values', not 'choice confidence' / 'bid confidence'.
concept_edges[1]1.0the tagger's words
concept_edgesconfidence —operationalised-as→ accumulators
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strength of the relation: 1 · note: in the model confidence IS the gap between accumulators at threshold - a definition, not a correlate Audit 2026-09-28: DOUBTFUL - read against its span and kept, but confidence was modelled in a race model of accumulators; operationalised-as is loose.
concept_edges[2]1.0the tagger's words
concept_edgesmetacognitive accuracy —operationalised-as→ logistic regression
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strength of the relation: 1 · note: the change in slope between low and high confidence trials; a different measure from calibration or meta-d prime Audit 2026-09-28: DOUBTFUL - read against its full span and kept, but the span writes 'slope of the logistic fit', not 'logistic regression'.
concept_edges[3]1.0the tagger's words
concept_edgeswillingness-to-pay —operationalised-as→ BDM
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strength of the relation: 1
concept_edges[4]1.0the tagger's words
concept_edgesdifference in value —operationalised-as→ willingness-to-pay
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strength of the relation: 1 Audit 2026-09-28: DOUBTFUL - read against its full span and kept, but the span writes 'value for individual items', not 'difference in value'.
concept_edges[5]0.9the tagger's words
concept_edgesnoise in the choice process —operationalised-as→ logistic regression
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strength of the relation: 0.8 · note: the SAME slope is called choice accuracy and noise in the same sentence; a record joining on either word joins on one number
concept_edges[6]1.0the tagger's words
concept_edgesEVIDENCE CORRECTED (RE-GROUNDED) · confidence —distinct-from→ difference in value
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EVIDENCE CORRECTED: RE-GROUNDED. The old span reported a variance figure without naming confidence. This sentence names both and separates them in the paper's own construction - the same region 'NOT ONLY ... BUT ALSO the confidence'. — strength of the relation: 1 · note: CRITERION: value difference explains only 17.7% of confidence variance, and that residual is what the whole design rests on
concept_edges[8]1.0the tagger's words
concept_edgesconfidence —causes→ reversed
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status: PREDICTIVE, NOT DEMONSTRATED CAUSAL: 'initial confidence was a significant negative predictor of choice reversal' in a logistic regression. A regression coefficient is not an intervention. · strength of the relation: 0.8 · note: SIGN: negative. Lower initial confidence predicts changing your mind on the repeat Audit 2026-09-28: DOUBTFUL - read against its span and kept, but confidence negatively predicted reversal; the edge carries no direction.
also in: confidence · reversed
concept_edges[9]0.9the tagger's words
content_tagslogistic regression
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content_tags.statistics[0]the tagger's words
content_tagsBayesian information criterion
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content_tags.statistics[1]the tagger's words
content_tagslikelihood ratio test
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content_tags.statistics[2]the tagger's words
content_tagsANOVA
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also in: ANOVA
content_tags.statistics[3]the tagger's words
content_tagst-test
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also in: t-test
content_tags.statistics[4]the tagger's words
content_tagspartial correlation
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content_tags.statistics[5]the tagger's words
content_tagsgeneral linear model
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content_tags.statistics[6]the tagger's words
content_tagsmultiple-comparison correction
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content_tags.statistics[7]the tagger's words
content_tagsstandard error of the mean
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content_tags.statistics[8]the tagger's words
content_tagsautocorrelation
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content_tags.statistics[9]the tagger's words
content_tagsBayesian information criterion
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content_tags.statistics[10]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagslikelihood ratio test
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content_tags.statistics[11]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagslogistic regression
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content_tags.statistics[12]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagspartial correlation
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content_tags.statistics[13]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsfamily wise error
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content_tags.statistics[14]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsone-sample t-test
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content_tags.statistics[15]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsgeneral linear model
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content_tags.statistics[16]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsSubjective confidence was only weakly related to the objective difference in value between the two options, so the two could be dissociated.
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content_tags.findings[0]the tagger's words
content_tagsTrials on which participants reported higher confidence showed higher choice accuracy, i.e. a steeper logistic slope relating value difference to choice.
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content_tags.findings[1]the tagger's words
content_tagsReaction time showed main effects of both value difference and confidence, with no interaction.
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content_tags.findings[2]the tagger's words
content_tagsThe regression model in which choice confidence modulates the effect of value difference on choice fitted better than models using confidence in the individual item bids.
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content_tags.findings[3]the tagger's words
content_tagsThe confidence-accuracy relationship was stable across scanning sessions and was not explained by trial-to-trial fluctuations in attention.
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content_tags.findings[4]the tagger's words
content_tagsChoices made with low initial confidence were more likely to be reversed when the same item pair was presented again.
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content_tags.findings[5]the tagger's words
content_tagsThe same vmPFC region carried both a value-difference signal and a confidence signal.
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content_tags.findings[6]the tagger's words
content_tagsValue and confidence had additive but non-interacting effects on vmPFC activity.
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content_tags.findings[7]the tagger's words
content_tagsRight rostrolateral prefrontal cortex encoded reported confidence but not the difference in value.
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content_tags.findings[8]the tagger's words
content_tagsThe strength of vmPFC-rRLPFC functional coupling predicted how well a participant's confidence tracked their own accuracy.
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content_tags.findings[9]the tagger's words
content_tagsvalue difference accounted for only 17.7% of the variance in confidence
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content_tags.findings[10]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagshigh confidence trials showed a steeper value-to-choice slope, so confidence tracks accuracy
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content_tags.findings[11]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsvalue difference and confidence both had main effects on reaction time, with no interaction
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content_tags.findings[12]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsthe model in which choice confidence modulates value difference beat four rivals on BIC
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content_tags.findings[13]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsthat model beat the canonical value-only model in 19 of 20 participants individually
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content_tags.findings[14]1.0the tagger's words
content_tags14.7% of choices reversed on repeat, and reversed choices had had markedly lower initial confidence
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content_tags.findings[15]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsvmPFC activity was modulated by both value difference and confidence
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content_tags.findings[16]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsrRLPFC tracked confidence but not value difference
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content_tags.findings[17]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsvmPFC-rRLPFC coupling scaled with confidence and predicted metacognitive accuracy across people
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content_tags.findings[18]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsLOAD-BEARING NULL: no value-by-confidence interaction in vmPFC, which is what supports their theoretical independence
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content_tags.findings[19]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsCONTROL NULL: no effect of session and no session-by-confidence interaction, so the relation is stable across the hour
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content_tags.findings[20]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsCONTROL NULL: confidence was not predicted by the preceding five trials' confidence, so it is not drifting attention
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content_tags.findings[21]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsCONTROL NULL: mean confidence did not differ between first and second presentation of the same pair
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content_tags.findings[22]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsCONTROL NULL: the vmPFC confidence response was not a categorical response to errors
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content_tags.findings[23]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsconfidence for a repeated item pair correlated with itself after partialling out value difference, in 19 of 20 subjects
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content_tags.findings[24]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsDECLARED NOT EVIDENCE: the vmPFC bar plot is shown to clarify the pattern, with inference carried out in a separate model
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content_tags.findings[25]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsDECLARED NOT EVIDENCE: the between-subject scatter plot is illustrative only and not the basis of the statistic
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content_tags.findings[26]0.85the tagger's words
content_tagschoice confidence
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content_tags.definitions[0]the tagger's words
content_tagsdifference in value (DV)
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content_tags.definitions[1]the tagger's words
content_tagsmetacognitive accuracy
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content_tags.definitions[3]the tagger's words
content_tagspsychophysiological interaction (PPI)
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content_tags.definitions[4]the tagger's words
content_tagsmetacognitive noise
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content_tags.definitions[5]the tagger's words
content_tagsconfidence
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also in: confidence
content_tags.definitions[6]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsrace model
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also in: race model
content_tags.definitions[7]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsmetacognitive accuracy
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content_tags.definitions[8]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsBDM
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also in: BDM
content_tags.definitions[9]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagssecond-order
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also in: second-order
content_tags.definitions[10]0.9the tagger's words
content_tagssigned difference in value
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content_tags.variables[0]the tagger's words
content_tagschoice reaction time
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content_tags.variables[3]the tagger's words
content_tagsSignal in vmPFC
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content_tags.variables[4]the tagger's words
content_tagschange in slope
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content_tags.variables[5]the tagger's words
content_tagschoice confidence
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content_tags.variables[7]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsdifference in value
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content_tags.variables[8]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsreaction time
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also in: reaction time
content_tags.variables[9]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsmetacognitive accuracy
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content_tags.variables[10]1.0the tagger's words
content_tags17.7% — share of the variance in confidence ratings explained by the unsigned value difference, showing the two are largely independent
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content_tags.quantities[0]the tagger's words
content_tags20 — number of participants whose fMRI and behavioural data entered the final analysis
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content_tags.quantities[1]the tagger's words
content_tags340 — total binary food choices each participant made in the scanner, across 4 sessions
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content_tags.quantities[2]the tagger's words
content_tags19 out of 20 — participants for whom the confidence-modulated choice model beat the value-only model by a likelihood ratio test
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content_tags.quantities[3]the tagger's words
content_tagsModel 1: 5424; Model 2: 4995; Model 3: 5388; Model 4: 5498; Model 5 5291 — BIC scores of the five competing logistic choice models, lowest (best) for the confidence-modulated Model 2
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content_tags.quantities[4]the tagger's words
content_tags14.7 % — proportion of choices that were reversed when the identical item pair was shown a second time
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content_tags.quantities[5]the tagger's words
content_tagsF (1,19) = 39.75; P < 0.0001 — main effect of confidence on choice accuracy when the logistic fit was split by scanning session
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content_tags.quantities[6]the tagger's words
content_tags210.6 ± 72.4 SD; 340.2 ± 53.5 SD — mean confidence (arbitrary units) on choices later reversed versus choices later repeated
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content_tags.quantities[7]the tagger's words
content_tagsF (1,19) = 5.1, p<0.05; F (1,19) = 7.6, p<0.05; F (1,19) = 0.7, p>0.5 — vmPFC main effects of value and of confidence with no value-by-confidence interaction
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content_tags.quantities[8]the tagger's words
content_tags17.7% — variance in confidence explained by unsigned value difference - the residual is what the design exploits
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content_tags.quantities[9]1.0the tagger's words
content_tags14.7% — choices reversed when the same pair reappeared
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content_tags.quantities[10]1.0the tagger's words
content_tags19 of 20 — participants for whom the confidence-modulated model beat the value-only model
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content_tags.quantities[11]1.0the tagger's words
content_tags28 down to 20 — participants recruited against participants analysed, after four exclusion rules
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content_tags.quantities[12]1.0the tagger's words
content_tagsstandard deviation > 0.8 — the spread of confidence ratings a participant had to show to be included at all
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content_tags.quantities[13]1.0the tagger's words
content_tags340 — choices per participant, each pair seen twice in mirrored positions
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content_tags.quantities[14]1.0the tagger's words

Interpretive choices

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