standOff, and the article is at its publisher via the link below. When we have changed our mind. Some entries in the table begin with a word in capitals and the reason for it. EVIDENCE CORRECTED — the finding still stands, but we had quoted the wrong sentence from the paper, and the quotation has been replaced with the right one. RETRACTED — the entry itself was wrong; it stays on the page, marked, with the reason, rather than being deleted. WITHDRAWN AND REPLACED — the entry was wrong, and a corrected version of it appears in the entries below. Each mark carries its own reason, in brackets, because the reasons differ from one entry to the next. An entry we have WITHDRAWN is removed from this page and kept in the record, with its reason. A line reading Audit and a date is a later re-reading of the entry against its whole sentence: DOUBTFUL means it was kept, and the reason says what is loose about it. Quotation marks inside the tagger's sentence. Where a tag is the tagger's own sentence, a phrase in quotation marks inside it is borrowed from the paper — the tagger's wording around it is not. The paper's own sentence is the evidence quote for that row; on this page it is withheld with the article, and the article is at its publisher. Nothing inside quotation marks anywhere on this page is ours: if it is quoted, it is the paper's. Whose words a concept carries. A concept entry records a term the paper itself uses, so the term, the sense given for it, and its evidence are the paper's own words, quoted where the paper fixes them. This is the opposite of a sense entry in the tag table, which is the tagger's sentence about how the paper uses a term. Where a concept entry could not be grounded in the paper's words, the entry says so on its own row.| relation to other work | claim_relations | how this paper stands to another: agrees, contradicts, extends, qualifies |
| claim type | claim_type | the shape of the claim: existence, mechanism, method, critique, prediction, null |
| concept edge | concept_edges | an asserted relation between two concepts, with the sentence asserting it |
| concept | concepts | an idea the paper works with, quoted where the paper uses it |
| content tag | content_tags | a finding, definition, quantity, statistic or variable named in the paper |
| contribution | contribution | what the paper claims to add |
| control | controls | an experiment run to eliminate a rival explanation |
| limitation | limitations | what the paper says its evidence cannot support |
| mechanism | mechanisms | how the reported effect is said to come about |
| method | method | how the paper produced its evidence |
| object of study | object_of_study | what the paper is about — the thing it investigates |
| phenomenon | phenomenon | the effect or regularity under study |
| research question | research_question | the question the paper sets itself |
| sense | senses | a distinct use of a term, quoted where the paper fixes it |
| transfer | transfers | a method or concept carried in from another field |
Relations on this page carry a quotation for the claim. Where a relation was separately evidenced — and so tested against the vocabulary for its type — the row says so; 2 of 2 relations here carry that mark. The rest are the tagger’s reading of the sentence quoted beside them.
| facet | tag | field | conf. | whose words |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| object_of_study | how much plastic enters the world's rivers, lakes and oceans each year, and whether any combination of the mitigation strategies now being adopted can bring that number down by 2030 Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | object_of_study | the paper's words | |
| research_question | what level of effort in waste reduction, waste management and environmental recovery would be needed to hold emissions below a stated target, given projected growth Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | research_question | the paper's words | |
| contribution | a mechanistic model over 173 countries showing that 19 to 23 Mt entered aquatic ecosystems in 2016, that the world's existing ambitious commitments still leave 20 to 53 Mt/year in 2030, and that no single strategy reaches the target alone Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | contribution | the paper's words | |
| claim_type | prediction Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | claim_type | the paper's words | |
| phenomenon | a flux whose measured size depends entirely on where the boundary of 'the environment' is drawn - an order of magnitude between emissions to the ocean and emissions to aquatic ecosystems Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | phenomenon | the paper's words | |
| method | computational-model Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: computational-model | method | the paper's words | |
| mechanisms | no environmentally acceptable level of plastic emission has ever been defined, so the paper sets its target to the 2010 ocean figure - chosen because that number galvanized global action. Every statement of the form `the effort required to reach the target` is therefore an effort required to return to a past level, not to a safe one, and the authors say so in the sentence that adopts it Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: a target with no threshold behind it | mechanisms[0] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| mechanisms | river emissions to the ocean run 0.8 to 2.7 Mt/year; emissions to aquatic ecosystems run 19 to 23. The difference is not measurement, it is whether a lake or a river is a destination or a conduit - and two papers using the same data can disagree tenfold without either being wrong Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | mechanisms[1] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| mechanisms | reduction alone needs an 85% cut in waste generation across all income levels; waste management alone needs 99% of plastic waste managed in every country; recovery alone needs 85% of annual emissions pulled back out. Each is stated as a single number, and each is what makes the combined 40/35/25, 99/80/60, 40% package the paper's actual finding Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: three levers, each impossible alone | mechanisms[2] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| mechanisms | the G7 charter, the EU strategy, UNEP, Clean Seas and the Our Oceans conferences generally lack specific numerical targets and not all countries have made commitments, so the ambitious scenario had to be built by applying reduction targets by income band. THE MODEL'S INPUT IS AN INTERPRETATION OF POLICY, because policy did not supply a number Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | mechanisms[3] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| mechanisms | waste trade is not counted, primary microplastics are not counted, lost fishing gear is not counted, the informal sector is not counted. The authors state the values may be an underestimate - and every named omission is an input, not an output, so the direction of the bias is knowable even where its size is not Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | mechanisms[4] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| limitations | no environmentally acceptable threshold for plastic emissions has been defined, so the target is a historical figure rather than a safety level Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | limitations[0] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| limitations | the trade of plastic waste is not accounted for, so high-income countries' contributions are misrepresented Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | limitations[1] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| limitations | global-scale data on plastic waste generation, collection and disposal are often lacking or unreliable, with inconsistent reporting, differing methodologies and omitted values Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | limitations[2] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| limitations | primary microplastics, wear particles and wastewater microplastic inputs are excluded Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | limitations[3] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| limitations | the commitments the ambitious scenario is built from generally lack specific numerical targets, and not all countries have made any Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | limitations[4] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| limitations | all commitments to date lack a quantitative model connecting action to a measurable reduction in emissions - which is the gap this paper is filling and also a statement about the evidence available to it Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | limitations[5] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| transfers | downhill flow accumulation from hydrological modelling, used here as a probability that inadequately managed waste reaches the nearest water body Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | transfers[0] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| transfers | World Bank income classification, a development-economics instrument used as the stratifying variable for waste infrastructure Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | transfers[1] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| controls | the 2016 estimate compared against an independent river-emissions estimate calibrated with field observations Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. eliminates: a model-only number - the paper's figure is checked against a measurement, and the remaining difference is explained by the wider system boundary rather than left standing · outcome: held | controls[0] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| controls | each of the three strategies pushed to its limit alone, with the other two held at the ambitious level Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. eliminates: the claim that any single lever is sufficient - which the paper notes many stakeholders promote as the best one · outcome: held | controls[1] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| controls | a Monte Carlo simulation propagating uncertainty in every input parameter and scenario through to the reported ranges Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. eliminates: point estimates presented without their uncertainty, in a model whose inputs the authors elsewhere call unreliable · outcome: held | controls[2] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| controls | countries stratified by World Bank income status, with waste generation and management parameters adjusted per band Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. eliminates: one global average standing for 173 countries whose waste infrastructure differs by an order of magnitude · outcome: held | controls[3] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| controls | the achievable recovery rate stated against the required one - 10% called inconceivable, 40% required Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. eliminates: a solution that is arithmetically valid and physically unavailable, which a model can produce without noticing · outcome: failed | controls[4] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| controls | scenarios for lower targets than 8 Mt, referred to the supplementary materials Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. eliminates: that the projected outcome depends on the particular 8 Mt target chosen rather than on the waste trajectory · outcome (stated by the tagger, no quotation): absent-stated-about-other | controls[5] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| concepts | aquatic ecosystems Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: aquatic ecosystems | concepts[0] | 0.95 | the paper's words |
| concepts | ocean Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: ocean | concepts[1] | 0.95 | the paper's words |
| concepts | target scenario Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: target scenario | concepts[2] | 0.95 | the paper's words |
| concepts | threshold Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: threshold | concepts[3] | 0.95 | the paper's words |
| concepts | BAU Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: BAU | concepts[4] | 0.95 | the paper's words |
| concepts | ambitious scenario Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: ambitious scenario | concepts[5] | 0.95 | the paper's words |
| concepts | waste management Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: waste management | concepts[6] | 0.95 | the paper's words |
| concepts | recovery Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: recovery | concepts[7] | 0.95 | the paper's words |
| concepts | reduction Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: reduction | concepts[8] | 0.95 | the paper's words |
| concepts | trade of plastic waste Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: trade of plastic waste | concepts[9] | 0.95 | the paper's words |
| concepts | microplastics Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: microplastics | concepts[10] | 0.95 | the paper's words |
| concepts | plastic emissions Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: plastic emissions | concepts[11] | 0.95 | the paper's words |
| concepts | Monte Carlo Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: Monte Carlo | concepts[12] | 0.95 | the paper's words |
| senses | the target - AS A NUMBER: 8 Mt/year, the estimated global emissions to the oceans in 2010 Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | senses[0] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| senses | the target - AS A JUSTIFICATION: not an environmentally acceptable threshold, which the authors say has yet to be defined, but the figure that galvanized global action by a variety of stakeholders Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | senses[1] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| senses | plastic emissions - TO THE OCEAN: 0.8 to 2.7 Mt/year from rivers, the figure this paper says its own estimate is consistent with Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | senses[2] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| senses | plastic emissions - TO AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS: 19 to 23 Mt/year, larger because lakes and rivers are counted as destinations and not only as conduits Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | senses[3] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| senses | the ambitious scenario - AS A NAME: what the world's governments, G7 charter, EU strategy and UN programmes have already committed to Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | senses[4] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| senses | the ambitious scenario - AS AN OUTCOME: 20 to 53 Mt/year in 2030, at or above 2016 levels, despite tremendous reduction efforts Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | senses[5] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| claim_relations | extends → the river-emissions estimate of 0.8 to 2.7 Mt/year to the global oceans, by widening the system boundary to lakes and rivers as destinations Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | claim_relations[0] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| claim_relations | critiques → the world's existing plastic commitments, which lack specific numerical targets and no quantitative model connecting them to a measurable reduction Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | claim_relations[1] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| claim_relations | critiques → the promotion by stakeholders of any single mitigation strategy as the best one Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | claim_relations[2] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| claim_relations | qualifies → its own estimate, by naming the waste trade, microplastics, fishing gear and the informal sector as excluded inputs and calling the values a likely underestimate Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | claim_relations[3] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| claim_relations | predicts → 20 to 53 Mt/year of plastic emissions to aquatic ecosystems in 2030 even under the world's existing ambitious commitments Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | claim_relations[4] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| concept_edges | waste management —distinct-from→ recovery Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. differs in: which point in the plastic's life the intervention acts at · the relation itself is separately evidenced · strength of the relation: 0.95 · differs in (stated by the tagger, no quotation): which point in the plastic's life the intervention acts at · the relation stated: waste management alone would need every country to manage 99% of its plastic waste; recovery alone would need 85% of annual global emissions pulled back out - and the paper says neither reaches the target on its own
Audit 2026-09-28: DOUBTFUL - read against its span and kept, but the span weighs two strategies; distinct-from is loose. also in: waste management · recovery | concept_edges[0] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| concept_edges | reduction —distinct-from→ waste management Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. differs in: whether the plastic is never made or is caught after it is · the relation itself is separately evidenced · strength of the relation: 0.95 · differs in (stated by the tagger, no quotation): whether the plastic is never made or is caught after it is · the relation stated: reduction alone would need an 85% cut in waste generation across every income level; waste management alone would need 99% of plastic waste managed in every country - and neither reaches the target
Audit 2026-09-28: DOUBTFUL - read against its span and kept, but the span weighs two strategies; distinct-from is loose. also in: reduction · waste management | concept_edges[1] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| content_tags | 19 to 23 Mt, or 11%, of plastic waste generated globally in 2016 entered aquatic ecosystems Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | content_tags.findings[0] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| content_tags | under the world's existing ambitious commitments, emissions stay at 20 to 53 Mt/year in 2030 - at or above 2016 levels Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | content_tags.findings[1] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| content_tags | no single strategy reaches the target: reduction alone needs 85%, waste management alone 99% managed, recovery alone 85% recovered Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | content_tags.findings[2] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| content_tags | reaching even 10% recovery of annual emissions is called inconceivable without major technological innovation, while the model requires 40% Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | content_tags.findings[3] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| content_tags | the 8 Mt target is not an environmental threshold - none has been defined - but the 2010 figure that galvanized global action Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | content_tags.findings[4] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| content_tags | the estimate is larger than the river-to-ocean figure because lakes and rivers are counted as destinations, not only as conduits Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | content_tags.findings[5] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| content_tags | increased waste management capacity alone cannot keep pace with projected growth in plastic waste generation Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | content_tags.findings[6] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| content_tags | the trade of plastic waste is not in the model, so high-income countries' contributions are misrepresented Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | content_tags.findings[7] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| content_tags | the paper's system boundary - major rivers, lakes and oceans - and the reason its emission estimate is an order of magnitude above the river-to-ocean figure Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: aquatic ecosystems | content_tags.definitions[0] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| content_tags | 8 Mt/year, set to the estimated 2010 global emissions to the oceans because no environmentally acceptable threshold has yet been defined Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: target scenario | content_tags.definitions[1] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| content_tags | of plastic waste generated globally in 2016 entered aquatic ecosystems - 19 to 23 million metric tons Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | content_tags.quantities[0] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| content_tags | million metric tons per year by 2030 under the world's existing ambitious commitments Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | content_tags.quantities[1] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| content_tags | million metric tons - the target, and the estimated 2010 emissions to the oceans Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. | content_tags.quantities[2] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| content_tags | Monte Carlo Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: Monte Carlo | content_tags.statistics[0] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| content_tags | recovery Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: recovery | content_tags.variables[0] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
| content_tags | waste management Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: waste management | content_tags.variables[1] | 0.95 | the tagger's words |
Tags that could not be placed in the text:
What was deliberately not tagged, and why, is recorded per paper by the tagger. Where a paper has no such record, this page says so rather than implying that nothing was declined.