Predicted growth in plastic waste exceeds efforts to mitigate plastic pollution — TEI-tagged view

Stephanie B. Borrelle, Jeremy Ringma, Kara Lavender Law, Cole C. Monnahan, Laurent Lebreton, Alexis McGivern, Erin L. Murphy, Jenna Jambeck, George H. Leonard, Michelle A. Hilleary, Marcus Eriksen, Hugh P. Possingham, Hannah De Frond, Leah R. Gerber, Beth Polidoro, Akbar Tahir, Miranda Bernard, Nicholas J. Mallos, Megan Barnes, Chelsea M. Rochman · 2020 · environmental-science · doi:10.1126/science.aba3656 · TEI xml · tagged edition · index · concepts · authors
Where this record's text came from. 2026-08-21 schema-0.3 pass: every quote verified as an exact substring of the staged text and anchored at merge time; concept terms verified present; every edge endpoint an existing node.
Other fields define these differently the same word, defined another way in another discipline
recovery 5 fields · microplastics 2 fields · threshold 2 fields
Tags on this paper every tag the record carries, whether or not the words occur in the text below — a number is how many papers in the corpus carry that tag; a tag with no number is unique to this paper
aquatic ecosystems ocean target scenario threshold21 BAU ambitious scenario waste management recovery8 reduction trade of plastic waste microplastics15 plastic emissions Monte Carlo3 computational-model96
Method, as described: a distance-based probability function over spatially explicit waste generation and downhill flow accumulation, applied to 173 countries stratified by World Bank income status, with a Monte Carlo simulation propagating parameter uncertainty

Our tag layer for this paper

Cross-disciplinary analysis
content-tags & facets: phenomenon · claim-type · cross-domain-transfer · mechanism · claim-relation · replication-status · limitation — grounded in the full text
phenomenona flux whose measured size depends entirely on where the boundary of 'the environment' is drawn - an order of magnitude between emissions to the ocean and emissions to aquatic ecosystems— “Our estimate is larger because it includes the amount that accumulates in lakes and rivers in addition to the plastic that escapes to the ocean.”
claim-typeprediction— “We assessed the impact of three broad management strategies, plastic waste reduction, waste management, and environmental recovery, at different levels of effort to estimate plastic emissions to 2030 for 173 countries. We estimate that 19 to 23 million metric tons, or 11%, of plastic waste generated globally in 2016 entered aquatic…
method — evidence— “For 173 countries with available data, we calculated annual plastic emissions entering aquatic ecosystems using a distance-based probability function. This function estimates the proportion of inadequately managed waste to reach the nearest aquatic ecosystem based on spatially explicit waste generation and downhill flow accumulation [( 18…
object of study — evidence— “We estimate that ~19 to 23 Mt, or 11%, of plastic waste generated globally in 2016 entered aquatic ecosystems (Fig. 1 and table S4; see the supplementary materials).”
research question — evidence— “We assessed the impact of three broad management strategies, plastic waste reduction, waste management, and environmental recovery, at different levels of effort to estimate plastic emissions to 2030 for 173 countries. We estimate that 19 to 23 million metric tons, or 11%, of plastic waste generated globally in 2016 entered aquatic…
contribution — evidence— “We estimate that ~19 to 23 Mt, or 11%, of plastic waste generated globally in 2016 entered aquatic ecosystems (Fig. 1 and table S4; see the supplementary materials).”
transferfrom hydrology: downhill flow accumulation from hydrological modelling, used here as a probability that inadequately managed waste reaches the nearest water body— “For 173 countries with available data, we calculated annual plastic emissions entering aquatic ecosystems using a distance-based probability function. This function estimates the proportion of inadequately managed waste to reach the nearest aquatic…transfers[0]
transferfrom development economics: World Bank income classification, a development-economics instrument used as the stratifying variable for waste infrastructure
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transfers[1]
mechanisma target with no threshold behind it no environmentally acceptable level of plastic emission has ever been defined, so the paper sets its target to the 2010 ocean figure - chosen because that number galvanized global action. Every statement of the form `the effort required to reach the target` is therefore an effort required to return to a past level, not to a safe one, and the authors say so in the sentence that adopts it
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mechanisms[0]
mechanismthe boundary is worth an order of magnitude river emissions to the ocean run 0.8 to 2.7 Mt/year; emissions to aquatic ecosystems run 19 to 23. The difference is not measurement, it is whether a lake or a river is a destination or a conduit - and two papers using the same data can disagree tenfold without either being wrong
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mechanisms[1]
mechanismthree levers, each impossible alone reduction alone needs an 85% cut in waste generation across all income levels; waste management alone needs 99% of plastic waste managed in every country; recovery alone needs 85% of annual emissions pulled back out. Each is stated as a single number, and each is what makes the combined 40/35/25, 99/80/60, 40% package the paper's actual finding
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mechanisms[2]
mechanismcommitments without numbers cannot be modelled the G7 charter, the EU strategy, UNEP, Clean Seas and the Our Oceans conferences generally lack specific numerical targets and not all countries have made commitments, so the ambitious scenario had to be built by applying reduction targets by income band. THE MODEL'S INPUT IS AN INTERPRETATION OF POLICY, because policy did not supply a number
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mechanisms[3]
mechanismthe excluded flows all point the same way waste trade is not counted, primary microplastics are not counted, lost fishing gear is not counted, the informal sector is not counted. The authors state the values may be an underestimate - and every named omission is an input, not an output, so the direction of the bias is knowable even where its size is not
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mechanisms[4]
extends the river-emissions estimate of 0.8 to 2.7 Mt/year to the global oceans, by widening the system boundary to lakes and rivers as destinations
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claim_relations[0]
critiques the world's existing plastic commitments, which lack specific numerical targets and no quantitative model connecting them to a measurable reduction
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claim_relations[1]
critiques the promotion by stakeholders of any single mitigation strategy as the best one
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claim_relations[2]
qualifies its own estimate, by naming the waste trade, microplastics, fishing gear and the informal sector as excluded inputs and calling the values a likely underestimate
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claim_relations[3]
predicts 20 to 53 Mt/year of plastic emissions to aquatic ecosystems in 2030 even under the world's existing ambitious commitments
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claim_relations[4]
sensethe target - AS A NUMBER: 8 Mt/year, the estimated global emissions to the oceans in 2010
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senses[0]
sensethe target - AS A JUSTIFICATION: not an environmentally acceptable threshold, which the authors say has yet to be defined, but the figure that galvanized global action by a variety of stakeholders
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senses[1]
senseplastic emissions - TO THE OCEAN: 0.8 to 2.7 Mt/year from rivers, the figure this paper says its own estimate is consistent with
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senses[2]
senseplastic emissions - TO AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS: 19 to 23 Mt/year, larger because lakes and rivers are counted as destinations and not only as conduits
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senses[3]
sensethe ambitious scenario - AS A NAME: what the world's governments, G7 charter, EU strategy and UN programmes have already committed to
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senses[4]
sensethe ambitious scenario - AS AN OUTCOME: 20 to 53 Mt/year in 2030, at or above 2016 levels, despite tremendous reduction efforts
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senses[5]
controlthe 2016 estimate compared against an independent river-emissions estimate calibrated with field observations — held
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— rules out a model-only number - the paper's figure is checked against a measurement, and the remaining difference is explained by the wider system boundary rather than left standing
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controls[0]
controleach of the three strategies pushed to its limit alone, with the other two held at the ambitious level — held
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— rules out the claim that any single lever is sufficient - which the paper notes many stakeholders promote as the best one
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controls[1]
controla Monte Carlo simulation propagating uncertainty in every input parameter and scenario through to the reported ranges — held
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— rules out point estimates presented without their uncertainty, in a model whose inputs the authors elsewhere call unreliable
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controls[2]
controlcountries stratified by World Bank income status, with waste generation and management parameters adjusted per band — held
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— rules out one global average standing for 173 countries whose waste infrastructure differs by an order of magnitude
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controls[3]
controlthe achievable recovery rate stated against the required one - 10% called inconceivable, 40% required — failed
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— rules out a solution that is arithmetically valid and physically unavailable, which a model can produce without noticing
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controls[4]
controlscenarios for lower targets than 8 Mt, referred to the supplementary materials — absent-stated-about-other — rules out that the projected outcome depends on the particular 8 Mt target chosen rather than on the waste trajectory
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controls[5]
weightthe river-emissions estimate of 0.8 to 2.7 Mt/year to the global oceans, by widening the system boundary to lakes and rivers as destinations — 0.95
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claim_relations[0]
weightthe world's existing plastic commitments, which lack specific numerical targets and no quantitative model connecting them to a measurable reduction — 0.95
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claim_relations[1]
weightthe promotion by stakeholders of any single mitigation strategy as the best one — 0.95
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claim_relations[2]
weightits own estimate, by naming the waste trade, microplastics, fishing gear and the informal sector as excluded inputs and calling the values a likely underestimate — 0.95
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claim_relations[3]
weight20 to 53 Mt/year of plastic emissions to aquatic ecosystems in 2030 even under the world's existing ambitious commitments — 0.95
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claim_relations[4]
auditwaste management —distinct-from→ recovery — Audit 2026-09-28: DOUBTFUL - read against its span and kept, but the span weighs two strategies; distinct-from is loose.
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concept_edges[0]
differs in (stated by the tagger, no quotation)waste management —distinct-from→ recovery — which point in the plastic's life the intervention acts atconcept_edges[0]
relationwaste management —distinct-from→ recovery — waste management alone would need every country to manage 99% of its plastic waste; recovery alone would need 85% of annual global emissions pulled back out - and the paper says neither reaches the target on its own
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concept_edges[0]
weightwaste management —distinct-from→ recovery — 0.95
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concept_edges[0]
auditreduction —distinct-from→ waste management — Audit 2026-09-28: DOUBTFUL - read against its span and kept, but the span weighs two strategies; distinct-from is loose.
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concept_edges[1]
differs in (stated by the tagger, no quotation)reduction —distinct-from→ waste management — whether the plastic is never made or is caught after it isconcept_edges[1]
relationreduction —distinct-from→ waste management — reduction alone would need an 85% cut in waste generation across every income level; waste management alone would need 99% of plastic waste managed in every country - and neither reaches the target
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concept_edges[1]
weightreduction —distinct-from→ waste management — 0.95
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concept_edges[1]
outcomecontrol — held
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controls[0]
outcomecontrol — held
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controls[1]
outcomecontrol — held
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controls[2]
outcomecontrol — held
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controls[3]
outcomecontrol — failed
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controls[4]
outcome (stated by the tagger, no quotation)control — absent-stated-about-other
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controls[5]
limitationno environmentally acceptable threshold for plastic emissions has been defined, so the target is a historical figure rather than a safety level
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limitations[0]
limitationthe trade of plastic waste is not accounted for, so high-income countries' contributions are misrepresented
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limitations[1]
limitationglobal-scale data on plastic waste generation, collection and disposal are often lacking or unreliable, with inconsistent reporting, differing methodologies and omitted values
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limitations[2]
limitationprimary microplastics, wear particles and wastewater microplastic inputs are excluded
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limitations[3]
limitationthe commitments the ambitious scenario is built from generally lack specific numerical targets, and not all countries have made any
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limitations[4]
limitationall commitments to date lack a quantitative model connecting action to a measurable reduction in emissions - which is the gap this paper is filling and also a statement about the evidence available to it
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limitations[5]
Content tags
content-observations: finding · quantity · variable · definition · key-term — grounded in the full text
finding
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content_tags.findings[0]
finding
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content_tags.findings[1]
finding
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content_tags.findings[2]
finding
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content_tags.findings[3]
finding
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content_tags.findings[4]
finding
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content_tags.findings[5]
finding
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content_tags.findings[6]
finding
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content_tags.findings[7]
quantityof plastic waste generated globally in 2016 entered aquatic ecosystems - 19 to 23 million metric tons
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content_tags.quantities[0]
quantitymillion metric tons per year by 2030 under the world's existing ambitious commitments
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content_tags.quantities[1]
quantitymillion metric tons - the target, and the estimated 2010 emissions to the oceans
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content_tags.quantities[2]
variablerecovery
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content_tags.variables[0]
variablewaste management
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content_tags.variables[1]
definitionaquatic ecosystems
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content_tags.definitions[0]
definitiontarget scenario
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content_tags.definitions[1]
Concepts
terms this paper carries, each with the sentence it was cut from — the layer that joins one paper to another. Terms with no quote yet are on CONCEPTS.html.
conceptaquatic ecosystems — not defined in this paper's own words; the paper's system boundary - major rivers, lakes and oceans - and the single choice that makes its emission estimate an order of magnitude larger than the river-to-ocean figure
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concepts[0]
conceptocean — not defined in this paper's own words; the narrower boundary most of this literature uses, where plastic that stops in a lake or a river has not yet been emitted
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concepts[1]
concepttarget scenario — not defined in this paper's own words; 8 Mt/year - set to a 2010 figure that mobilised action because no environmentally acceptable threshold exists to set it to
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concepts[2]
conceptthreshold — not defined in this paper's own words; the environmentally acceptable level of plastic emission - stated here as not yet defined, which is why the target is a historical number instead
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concepts[3]
conceptBAU — not defined in this paper's own words; business as usual - production and waste generation on current trajectories, the counterfactual every mitigation number is measured against
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concepts[4]
conceptambitious scenario — not defined in this paper's own words; the world's existing commitments taken at face value, which still leaves emissions at or above 2016 levels in 2030
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concepts[5]
conceptwaste management — not defined in this paper's own words; capture and containment - one of three levers, and one that alone would require every country on earth to manage 99% of its plastic waste
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concepts[6]
conceptrecovery — not defined in this paper's own words; clean-up - the lever the model needs at 40% of annual emissions and which the authors call inconceivable above 10%
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concepts[7]
conceptreduction — not defined in this paper's own words; cutting waste generation at source - the third lever, requiring an 85% cut across all income levels if used alone
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concepts[8]
concepttrade of plastic waste — not defined in this paper's own words; the shipping of waste from high-income to lower-income countries, excluded from the model and therefore a known misattribution of who emits
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concepts[9]
conceptmicroplastics — not defined in this paper's own words; primary microplastics, wear particles and wastewater inputs - all excluded, on the stated grounds that they are comparatively small in mass
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concepts[10]
conceptplastic emissions — not defined in this paper's own words; the modelled flux, attributed to the country where the waste was inadequately managed - which the excluded waste trade makes a statement about disposal rather than about generation
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concepts[11]
conceptMonte Carlo — not defined in this paper's own words; how the uncertainty in every input parameter is carried through to the reported ranges rather than being reported as point estimates
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concepts[12]
Statistics — cross-field join keys
field-invariant statistical terms, used in their statistical sense (gated on a number / symbol / test). A p-value or a standard deviation means the SAME thing in physics, biology, psychology and sociology — so these are the strongest cross-field join keys. Grounded verbatim.
Monte Carlo
Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher.
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When we have changed our mind. Some entries in the table begin with a word in capitals and the reason for it. EVIDENCE CORRECTED — the finding still stands, but we had quoted the wrong sentence from the paper, and the quotation has been replaced with the right one. RETRACTED — the entry itself was wrong; it stays on the page, marked, with the reason, rather than being deleted. WITHDRAWN AND REPLACED — the entry was wrong, and a corrected version of it appears in the entries below. Each mark carries its own reason, in brackets, because the reasons differ from one entry to the next. An entry we have WITHDRAWN is removed from this page and kept in the record, with its reason. A line reading Audit and a date is a later re-reading of the entry against its whole sentence: DOUBTFUL means it was kept, and the reason says what is loose about it. Quotation marks inside the tagger's sentence. Where a tag is the tagger's own sentence, a phrase in quotation marks inside it is borrowed from the paper — the tagger's wording around it is not. The paper's own sentence is the evidence quote for that row; on this page it is withheld with the article, and the article is at its publisher. Nothing inside quotation marks anywhere on this page is ours: if it is quoted, it is the paper's. Whose words a concept carries. A concept entry records a term the paper itself uses, so the term, the sense given for it, and its evidence are the paper's own words, quoted where the paper fixes them. This is the opposite of a sense entry in the tag table, which is the tagger's sentence about how the paper uses a term. Where a concept entry could not be grounded in the paper's words, the entry says so on its own row.

Tag layer © the Meta-Tagging Project, CC BY 4.0. The paper text is © its authors/publisher and is linked, not reproduced. Excerpts shown are short quotations for identification and verification. · back to index · concepts · authors · עברית
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