Production, use, and fate of all plastics ever made

Roland Geyer, Jenna Jambeck, Kara Lavender Law · Science Advances · 2017 · environmental-science · 10.1126/sciadv.1700782 · record geyer2017-production-use-and-fate-of-all-pla
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Other fields define these differently the same word, defined another way in another discipline
microplastics 2 fields · sensitivity analysis 2 fields

Tags on this paper

Every tag the record carries, each linking to every other paper in the corpus that carries it. A tag appears here whether or not its words occur in the article — the spans below are only the ones a sentence in this paper licenses. Of the 22 concept tags on this paper, all 22 are grounded in a quoted sentence.

plastics polymer resins synthetic fibers additives material flow model primary plastics secondary plastics recycling incineration discard rate final disposal microplastics packaging product lifetime distributions log-normal distributions sensitivity analysis pyrolysis monomers landfills municipal solid waste PP&A fibers CAGR NON-BIODEGRADABILITY CONVERTS PRODUCTION DIRECTLY INTO STOCK: because none of the commonly used plastics biodegrade, waste accumulates rather than decomposes, so every tonne made is still somewhere unless it was burned THE ONLY PERMANENT SINK IS THERMAL DESTRUCTION - combustion or pyrolysis. Recycling and landfill both keep the material in the system, which is why the accounting has an ever-growing discarded stock RECYCLING ONLY REDUCES FUTURE WASTE IF IT DISPLACES PRIMARY PRODUCTION, and whether it does is counterfactual and so extremely difficult to establish - the mechanism is stated together with the reason it cannot be measured MIXING AND CONTAMINATION DEGRADE THE SECONDARY MATERIAL, so recycled plastic is of limited or low technical and economic value and cannot simply substitute for virgin material SUNLIGHT FRAGMENTS RATHER THAN DEGRADES: weathering breaks the material into millimetre and micrometre particles without biodegrading it, which is where microplastics come from THE PROPERTY THAT MAKES PLASTIC USEFUL IS THE PROPERTY THAT MAKES IT PERSIST - durability and resistance to degradation are the same fact described from two sides, so the problem is not a defect in the material but its purpose PRODUCT LIFETIME DECOUPLES WASTE FROM PRODUCTION IN TIME: packaging leaves use the year it is made while construction plastic leaving use today was made decades ago, when volumes were far lower - so the waste stream's composition is not the production stream's THE SHIFT FROM REUSABLE TO SINGLE-USE CONTAINERS DROVE PACKAGING, the largest market, and packaging is the shortest-lived sector - so the market that grew fastest is the one that becomes waste soonest Global recycling incineration rates computational-model

Method, as described: a material flow model combining production statistics with log-normal product lifetime distributions for eight use sectors, and regional recycling, incineration and discard rates

Legend

relation to other work	`claim_relations`	how this paper stands to another: agrees, contradicts, extends, qualifies
claim type	`claim_type`	the shape of the claim: existence, mechanism, method, critique, prediction, null
concept edge	`concept_edges`	an asserted relation between two concepts, with the sentence asserting it
concept	`concepts`	an idea the paper works with, quoted where the paper uses it
content tag	`content_tags`	a finding, definition, quantity, statistic or variable named in the paper
contribution	`contribution`	what the paper claims to add
control	`controls`	an experiment run to eliminate a rival explanation
limitation	`limitations`	what the paper says its evidence cannot support
mechanism	`mechanisms`	how the reported effect is said to come about
method	`method`	how the paper produced its evidence
object of study	`object_of_study`	what the paper is about — the thing it investigates
phenomenon	`phenomenon`	the effect or regularity under study
research question	`research_question`	the question the paper sets itself
sense	`senses`	a distinct use of a term, quoted where the paper fixes it

The paper

The full text is not reproduced here. This article is not cleared for redistribution, so the page carries the tag layer only. Its evidence sentences are withheld; the grounding status remains with each tag, and the article itself is at https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1700782. The reading view exists for the papers whose licence permits it.

Every tag on this page

claim_relations 2 · claim_type 1 · concept_edges 4 · concepts 22 · content_tags 18 · contribution 1 · controls 6 · limitations 8 · mechanisms 8 · method 1 · object_of_study 1 · phenomenon 1 · research_question 1 · senses 3

Relations on this page carry a quotation for the claim. Where a relation was separately evidenced — and so tested against the vocabulary for its type — the row says so; none of 4 relations here carry that mark. The rest are the tagger’s reading of the sentence quoted beside them.

facet	tag	field	conf.	whose words
object_of_study	every mass-produced plastic ever manufactured - polymer resins, synthetic fibers and additives - from production through use to end-of-life fate, 1950 to 2015 Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`object_of_study`		the paper's words
research_question	how much plastic has been made, how much is still in use, and where the rest of it went Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`research_question`		the paper's words
contribution	the first global material-flow account of all mass-produced plastics, including fibers and additives, which had typically been omitted Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`contribution`		the paper's words
claim_type	existence Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`claim_type`		the paper's words
phenomenon	the accumulation of non-biodegradable plastic waste in landfills and the natural environment Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`phenomenon`		the paper's words
method	computational-model Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: computational-model	`method`		the paper's words
mechanisms	mechanisms Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: NON-BIODEGRADABILITY CONVERTS PRODUCTION DIRECTLY INTO STOCK: because none of the commonly used plastics biodegrade, waste accumulates rather than decomposes, so every tonne made is still somewhere unless it was burned	`mechanisms[0]`	0.95	the tagger's words
mechanisms	mechanisms Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: THE ONLY PERMANENT SINK IS THERMAL DESTRUCTION - combustion or pyrolysis. Recycling and landfill both keep the material in the system, which is why the accounting has an ever-growing discarded stock	`mechanisms[1]`	0.95	the tagger's words
mechanisms	mechanisms Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. status: because of its counterfactual nature, this displacement is extremely difficult to establish also in: RECYCLING ONLY REDUCES FUTURE WASTE IF IT DISPLACES PRIMARY PRODUCTION, and whether it does is counterfactual and so extremely difficult to establish - the mechanism is stated together with the reason it cannot be measured	`mechanisms[2]`	0.95	the tagger's words
mechanisms	mechanisms Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: MIXING AND CONTAMINATION DEGRADE THE SECONDARY MATERIAL, so recycled plastic is of limited or low technical and economic value and cannot simply substitute for virgin material	`mechanisms[3]`	0.95	the tagger's words
mechanisms	mechanisms Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: SUNLIGHT FRAGMENTS RATHER THAN DEGRADES: weathering breaks the material into millimetre and micrometre particles without biodegrading it, which is where microplastics come from	`mechanisms[4]`	0.95	the tagger's words
mechanisms	mechanisms Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: THE PROPERTY THAT MAKES PLASTIC USEFUL IS THE PROPERTY THAT MAKES IT PERSIST - durability and resistance to degradation are the same fact described from two sides, so the problem is not a defect in the material but its purpose	`mechanisms[5]`	0.95	the tagger's words
mechanisms	mechanisms Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: PRODUCT LIFETIME DECOUPLES WASTE FROM PRODUCTION IN TIME: packaging leaves use the year it is made while construction plastic leaving use today was made decades ago, when volumes were far lower - so the waste stream's composition is not the production stream's	`mechanisms[6]`	0.95	the tagger's words
mechanisms	mechanisms Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: THE SHIFT FROM REUSABLE TO SINGLE-USE CONTAINERS DROVE PACKAGING, the largest market, and packaging is the shortest-lived sector - so the market that grew fastest is the one that becomes waste soonest	`mechanisms[7]`	0.95	the tagger's words
limitations	the two largest sources of uncertainty are named: product-category lifetime distributions, and incineration and recycling rates outside Europe and the US Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`limitations[0]`	0.95	the tagger's words
limitations	waste management data were sparse and of poor quality in many world regions, which is why the sensitivity analysis was run Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`limitations[1]`	0.95	the tagger's words
limitations	the additives-to-polymer fraction and the sector breakdowns are known only for 2000-2014 and were assumed constant back to 1950 Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`limitations[2]`	0.95	the tagger's words
limitations	bio-based and biodegradable plastics are excluded from the analysis entirely, at a stated global capacity of 4 Mt Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`limitations[3]`	0.95	the tagger's words
limitations	the more direct measurement route - solid waste generation combined with waste characterization - was unavailable at the required detail and quality for many countries Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`limitations[4]`	0.95	the tagger's words
limitations	end-of-life textiles are assumed to be incinerated and discarded with municipal solid waste, on the ground that there is no significant fiber recycling Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`limitations[5]`	0.95	the tagger's words
limitations	the environmental impact of plastic waste in land-based ecosystems is stated to be largely unknown, in contrast to the marine and freshwater literature Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`limitations[6]`	0.95	the tagger's words
limitations	fiber and additives production data are not readily available and had typically been omitted from previous analyses - which is the gap this paper fills and also the weakest part of its own inputs Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`limitations[7]`	0.9	the tagger's words
controls	the model's 2010 estimate was checked against an independently derived published estimate and matched it to within 1 Mt Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. eliminates: the possibility that the whole material-flow model is mis-specified - an independently derived published estimate for 2010 agrees to within 1 Mt (274 against 275) · outcome: held	`controls[0]`	0.95	the tagger's words
controls	sensitivity analysis on product lifetimes: moving every category's mean by 1 SD moves cumulative primary waste generation by -4/+5% Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. eliminates: product lifetime assumptions as the driver of the headline totals - moving every category's mean by a full SD moves cumulative primary waste generation only -4/+5% · outcome: held	`controls[1]`	0.95	the tagger's words
controls	sensitivity analysis on waste management rates: moving incineration and recycling by 5 percentage points moves cumulative discarded waste by -8/+6% Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. eliminates: waste-management rates as the driver of the discarded-plastic total - moving incineration and recycling by 5 percentage points moves it only -8/+6% · outcome: held	`controls[2]`	0.95	the tagger's words
controls	the 2050 lines are declared forward projections of historical trends and NOT a prediction or forecast - the authors refuse the reading their own figure invites Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. eliminates: the reading that the 12,000 Mt-by-2050 figure is a forecast - it is declared a forward projection of historical trends and explicitly not a prediction · outcome: held	`controls[3]`	0.95	the tagger's words
controls	results are rounded to the nearest 100 Mt because the analysis is subject to considerable uncertainty - the precision of the reported number is itself chosen to match the uncertainty Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. eliminates: false precision - rounding to the nearest 100 Mt stops a reader treating the reported digits as resolved when the analysis carries considerable uncertainty · outcome: held	`controls[4]`	0.95	the tagger's words
controls	additives production data are not publicly available and were bought from market research companies, then cross-checked for consistency Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. eliminates: a single commercial source being wrong or self-serving on the additives figures, which are not publicly available - they were cross-checked between providers · outcome: held	`controls[5]`	0.9	the tagger's words
concepts	plastics Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: plastics	`concepts[0]`	0.95	the paper's words
concepts	polymer resins Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: polymer resins	`concepts[1]`	0.95	the paper's words
concepts	synthetic fibers Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: synthetic fibers	`concepts[2]`	0.95	the paper's words
concepts	additives Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: additives	`concepts[3]`	0.95	the paper's words
concepts	material flow model Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: material flow model	`concepts[4]`	0.95	the paper's words
concepts	primary plastics Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: primary plastics	`concepts[5]`	0.95	the paper's words
concepts	secondary plastics Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: secondary plastics	`concepts[6]`	0.95	the paper's words
concepts	recycling Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: recycling	`concepts[7]`	0.95	the paper's words
concepts	incineration Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: incineration	`concepts[8]`	0.95	the paper's words
concepts	discard rate Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: discard rate	`concepts[9]`	0.95	the paper's words
concepts	final disposal Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: final disposal	`concepts[10]`	0.95	the paper's words
concepts	microplastics Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: microplastics	`concepts[11]`	0.95	the paper's words
concepts	packaging Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: packaging	`concepts[12]`	0.95	the paper's words
concepts	product lifetime distributions Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: product lifetime distributions	`concepts[13]`	0.95	the paper's words
concepts	log-normal distributions Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: log-normal distributions	`concepts[14]`	0.95	the paper's words
concepts	sensitivity analysis Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: sensitivity analysis	`concepts[15]`	0.95	the paper's words
concepts	pyrolysis Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: pyrolysis	`concepts[16]`	0.95	the paper's words
concepts	monomers Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: monomers	`concepts[17]`	0.95	the paper's words
concepts	landfills Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: landfills	`concepts[18]`	0.95	the paper's words
concepts	municipal solid waste Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: municipal solid waste	`concepts[19]`	0.95	the paper's words
concepts	PP&A fibers Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: PP&A fibers	`concepts[20]`	0.95	the paper's words
concepts	CAGR Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: CAGR	`concepts[21]`	0.95	the paper's words
senses	primary plastics - IN THIS PAPER, PLASTIC MADE FROM VIRGIN MATERIAL, defined against `secondary` (recycled) rather than against any chemical property. The whole flow model turns on the distinction, because recycled material re-enters the use phase and would otherwise be counted twice Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`senses[0]`	0.95	the tagger's words
senses	recycling - EXPLICITLY A DELAY, NOT AN AVOIDANCE. The paper defines it by what it does to the flow: material returns to use and reaches final disposal later, and it only reduces future waste if it displaces primary production - which the paper says is extremely difficult to establish because the claim is counterfactual Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`senses[1]`	0.95	the tagger's words
senses	plastic waste `fate` - A THREE-WAY EXHAUSTIVE PARTITION used as the model's accounting identity: recycled, thermally destroyed, or discarded. It is a bookkeeping category, not an environmental one - `discarded` covers both a sanitary landfill and the open ocean Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`senses[2]`	0.9	the tagger's words
claim_relations	confirms → Jambeck et al.'s independently derived estimate of plastic waste generation, which this model reproduces to within 1 Mt (274 against 275 Mt for 2010) Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`claim_relations[0]`	0.95	the tagger's words
claim_relations	distinguishes-from → the direct method of combining solid waste generation data with waste characterization, which the authors could not use because the data are not available at the required detail and quality for many countries Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`claim_relations[1]`	0.95	the tagger's words
concept_edges	recycling —distinct-from→ final disposal Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. strength of the relation: 0.95 Audit 2026-09-28: DOUBTFUL - read against its span and kept, but the span says recycling delays rather than avoids disposal; distinct-from is loose. also in: recycling · final disposal	`concept_edges[0]`		the tagger's words
concept_edges	product lifetime distributions —operationalised-as→ log-normal distributions Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. strength of the relation: 0.95 Audit 2026-09-28: DOUBTFUL - read against its full span and kept, but endpoint by anaphora: the log-normal distributions are the product lifetime distributions (previous sentence). also in: product lifetime distributions · log-normal distributions	`concept_edges[2]`		the tagger's words
concept_edges	additives —part-of→ plastics Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. strength of the relation: 0.9 also in: additives · plastics	`concept_edges[3]`		the tagger's words
concept_edges	monomers —part-of→ plastics Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. strength of the relation: 0.9 Audit 2026-09-28: DOUBTFUL - read against its span and kept, but monomers are used to make plastics; part-of is loose. also in: monomers · plastics	`concept_edges[4]`		the tagger's words
content_tags	recycling delays rather than avoids final disposal, and reduces future waste only if it displaces primary production - which is counterfactual and extremely difficult to establish Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`content_tags.findings[0]`	0.95	the tagger's words
content_tags	The durability and resistance to degradation that make plastics versatile also make them hard or impossible for nature to assimilate. Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`content_tags.findings[1]`	0.95	the tagger's words
content_tags	US plastic recycling has been flat at 9% since 2012 while Europe reached 30% and China 25% in 2014 Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`content_tags.findings[2]`	0.95	the tagger's words
content_tags	the share of plastics in municipal solid waste by mass rose from under 1% in 1960 to over 10% by 2005 in middle- and high-income countries Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`content_tags.findings[3]`	0.95	the tagger's words
content_tags	8300 Mt of virgin plastics produced to date; 6300 Mt of plastic waste generated as of 2015, 9% recycled, 12% incinerated, 79% accumulated — None Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`content_tags.quantities[0]`	0.95	the tagger's words
content_tags	roughly 12,000 Mt of plastic waste in landfills or the natural environment by 2050 if trends continue — None Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`content_tags.quantities[1]`	0.95	the tagger's words
content_tags	production rose from 2 Mt in 1950 to 380 Mt in 2015, a CAGR of 8.4%, about 2.5 times the CAGR of global GDP over the same period — None Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`content_tags.quantities[2]`	0.95	the tagger's words
content_tags	7800 Mt of resins and fibers made 1950-2015, half of it in the last 13 years — None Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`content_tags.quantities[3]`	0.95	the tagger's words
content_tags	2500 Mt (30% of all plastics ever produced) still in use; 4900 Mt (60%) discarded and accumulating — None Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`content_tags.quantities[4]`	0.95	the tagger's words
content_tags	nonfiber plastics are 93% polymer resin and 7% additives by mass — None Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`content_tags.quantities[5]`	0.95	the tagger's words
content_tags	seven polymer groups account for 92% of all plastics ever made — None Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`content_tags.quantities[6]`	0.95	the tagger's words
content_tags	China accounts for 28% of global resin and 68% of global PP&A fiber production — None Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`content_tags.quantities[7]`	0.95	the tagger's words
content_tags	only 10% of recycled plastic has been recycled more than once — None Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`content_tags.quantities[8]`	0.95	the tagger's words
content_tags	the resin production series fits a second-order polynomial time trend at R2 = 0.9968 and the fiber series a third-order polynomial at R2 = 0.9934 Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`content_tags.statistics[0]`	0.95	the tagger's words
content_tags	moving all mean product lifetimes by 1 SD changes cumulative primary plastic waste generation by -4/+5% Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`content_tags.statistics[1]`	0.95	the tagger's words
content_tags	moving incineration and recycling rates by 5% changes cumulative discarded plastic waste by -8/+6% Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.	`content_tags.statistics[2]`	0.95	the tagger's words
content_tags	Global recycling Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: Global recycling	`content_tags.variables[2]`	0.95	the tagger's words
content_tags	incineration rates Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above. also in: incineration rates	`content_tags.variables[3]`	0.95	the tagger's words

Interpretive choices

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