River plastic emissions to the world’s oceans

Laurent Lebreton, Joost van der Zwet, Jan-Willem Damsteeg, Boyan Slat, Anthony L. Andrady, Júlia Reisser · Nature Communications · 2017 · environmental-science · 10.1038/ncomms15611 · record lebreton2017-river-plastic-emissions-to-the-wor
tag layer · index · concepts · authors · עברית
Where this record's text came from. 2026-08-21 schema-0.3 pass: every quote verified as an exact substring of the staged text and anchored at merge time; concept terms verified present; every edge endpoint an existing node.
How to read this page. The article itself is not reproduced here — this paper is not cleared for redistribution, so what follows is the tag layer alone. The evidence sentences are withheld with the article. The table at the foot lists every tag the record carries; each row names the facet it belongs to, and the whose words column says whether the tag records the paper's own wording or the tagger's sentence about the paper. Every tag links to each other paper in the corpus carrying it. The machine-readable edition of the same thing is the TEI file beside this one, where the tags live in standOff, and the article is at its publisher via the link below. When we have changed our mind. Some entries in the table begin with a word in capitals and the reason for it. EVIDENCE CORRECTED — the finding still stands, but we had quoted the wrong sentence from the paper, and the quotation has been replaced with the right one. RETRACTED — the entry itself was wrong; it stays on the page, marked, with the reason, rather than being deleted. WITHDRAWN AND REPLACED — the entry was wrong, and a corrected version of it appears in the entries below. Each mark carries its own reason, in brackets, because the reasons differ from one entry to the next. An entry we have WITHDRAWN is removed from this page and kept in the record, with its reason. A line reading Audit and a date is a later re-reading of the entry against its whole sentence: DOUBTFUL means it was kept, and the reason says what is loose about it. Quotation marks inside the tagger's sentence. Where a tag is the tagger's own sentence, a phrase in quotation marks inside it is borrowed from the paper — the tagger's wording around it is not. The paper's own sentence is the evidence quote for that row; on this page it is withheld with the article, and the article is at its publisher. Nothing inside quotation marks anywhere on this page is ours: if it is quoted, it is the paper's. Whose words a concept carries. A concept entry records a term the paper itself uses, so the term, the sense given for it, and its evidence are the paper's own words, quoted where the paper fixes them. This is the opposite of a sense entry in the tag table, which is the tagger's sentence about how the paper uses a term. Where a concept entry could not be grounded in the paper's words, the entry says so on its own row.
Other fields define these differently the same word, defined another way in another discipline
sensitivity analysis 2 fields

Tags on this paper

Every tag the record carries, each linking to every other paper in the corpus that carries it. A tag appears here whether or not its words occur in the article — the spans below are only the ones a sentence in this paper licenses. Of the 10 concept tags on this paper, all 10 are grounded in a quoted sentence. All carry the tagger's gloss of what the term means in this paper, which is not something the article can license.
mass balance MPW artificial barriers catchment runoff buoyant plastics macro-plastic Yangtze River coastal populations sensitivity analysis monthly averaged runoff runoff as the transport term dams as accumulation sinks outlier leverage on a fitted correlation Pearson product-moment test r=0.4132 r=0.99 computational-model
Method, as described: an empirical model of mismanaged plastic waste times catchment runoff, fitted to surface-water observations and propagated over 40,760 watersheds, with dams treated as sinks

Legend

relation to other workclaim_relationshow this paper stands to another: agrees, contradicts, extends, qualifies
claim typeclaim_typethe shape of the claim: existence, mechanism, method, critique, prediction, null
conceptconceptsan idea the paper works with, quoted where the paper uses it
content tagcontent_tagsa finding, definition, quantity, statistic or variable named in the paper
contributioncontributionwhat the paper claims to add
controlcontrolsan experiment run to eliminate a rival explanation
limitationlimitationswhat the paper says its evidence cannot support
mechanismmechanismshow the reported effect is said to come about
methodmethodhow the paper produced its evidence
object of studyobject_of_studywhat the paper is about — the thing it investigates
phenomenonphenomenonthe effect or regularity under study
research questionresearch_questionthe question the paper sets itself
sensesensesa distinct use of a term, quoted where the paper fixes it
transfertransfersa method or concept carried in from another field

The paper

The full text is not reproduced here. This article is not cleared for redistribution, so the page carries the tag layer only. Its evidence sentences are withheld; the grounding status remains with each tag, and the article itself is at https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15611. The reading view exists for the papers whose licence permits it.

Every tag on this page

claim_relations 4 · claim_type 1 · concepts 10 · content_tags 19 · contribution 1 · controls 6 · limitations 7 · mechanisms 3 · method 1 · object_of_study 1 · phenomenon 1 · research_question 1 · senses 4 · transfers 2

This record holds no relations between concepts. A layer is empty when the tagger recorded nothing in it — which is not the same as the paper having nothing to record.

facettagfieldconf.whose words
object_of_studythe mass of plastic entering the ocean from rivers each year, and how it is distributed in space and across the seasons
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
object_of_studythe paper's words
research_questionhow much plastic inland populations contribute to the ocean through rivers - a global figure that did not exist, where the coastal contribution already did
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
research_questionthe paper's words
contributiona global model of riverine plastic input calibrated against 30 field observations from 13 rivers, giving 1.15-2.41 million tonnes per year with its seasonality and its top contributors named
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
contributionthe paper's words
claim_typeexistence
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
claim_typethe paper's words
phenomenona global flux nobody had measured, whose magnitude turns out to be set by waste management and monsoon rainfall in a handful of Asian catchments
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
phenomenonthe paper's words
methodcomputational-model
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
methodthe paper's words
mechanismsmismanaged waste sits on land until rainfall mobilises it; surface runoff both introduces new plastic to the river during heavy rain and remobilises deposited particles during floods, so input tracks the monsoon rather than the population
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
mechanisms[0]0.95the tagger's words
mechanismsan artificial barrier intercepts surface plastic, so the load reaching the river mouth reflects only the catchment area downstream of the last dam - which is why moving that boundary changes the global total
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
mechanisms[1]0.95the tagger's words
mechanismsone catchment with plastic concentrations orders of magnitude above every other sampled river dominates a regression across 30 points, so including it raises the correlation from 0.41 to 0.99 without the model having improved
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
mechanisms[2]0.95the tagger's words
limitationsthe model rests on the assumption that dams intercept ALL plastic, which the authors name as a major assumption; 2.13-4.46 million tonnes per year is generated upstream of dams and simply not counted
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
limitations[0]0.95the tagger's words
limitationsthere is very little data to document the assumptions about Asian contributions or to thoroughly verify the validity of the model - stated by the authors about the region that supplies 86% of their total
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
limitations[1]0.95the tagger's words
limitationsthe estimate covers only the sampled size spectrum - nothing below the net mesh, nothing above the trawl aperture, nothing below the sampled depth - so it is conservative by construction
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
limitations[2]0.95the tagger's words
limitationsthe global prediction doubles from the lower to the upper estimate once the extrapolation uncertainties in the calibration dataset are propagated
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
limitations[3]0.95the tagger's words
limitationsstudies reporting only particle counts were converted to mass using a mean micro/macro ratio and mean particle masses measured AT SEA, not in rivers - an extrapolation the authors name as a limitation of the calibration
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
limitations[4]0.95the tagger's words
limitationsthe hydrological model's discharge predictions are known to run dryer than observations across 66 basins, attributed to precipitation uncertainty
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
limitations[5]0.95the tagger's words
limitationsobserved plastic concentrations differ by several orders of magnitude between sampled rivers, and sampling designs, devices and reported units vary substantially - so the calibration set is heterogeneous before any model is fitted
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
limitations[6]0.95the tagger's words
transfersland-surface hydrology - the GLDAS/NOAH runoff model built for terrestrial water and energy budgets - carried into a plastic-transport estimate as the seasonality term
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
transfers[0]0.95the tagger's words
transfersmean particle masses and the micro-to-macro ratio measured in the open ocean, carried into rivers to convert particle counts into mass where studies reported only counts
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
transfers[1]0.95the tagger's words
controlsremoving the Yangtze measurement as an outlier before testing the model-observation correlation, rather than reporting the flattering fit
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
eliminates: a model-observation correlation carried by one extreme measurement · outcome: held
controls[0]0.95the tagger's words
controlsre-deriving the regression with mismanaged waste counted upstream of dams as well, to test whether the global answer depends on where a dam is treated as a sink
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
eliminates: a global input figure that depends on whether a dam is treated as a sink · outcome: partial
controls[1]0.95the tagger's words
controlschoosing monthly rather than yearly averaged runoff, tested against the observed flux inputs instead of assumed
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
eliminates: a runoff averaging window chosen because it fits, rather than because it predicts the observed flux · outcome: held
controls[2]0.95the tagger's words
controlsa sensitivity analysis over the micro/macro ratio and mean particle masses, using the ranges observed at sea
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
eliminates: a mass estimate that holds only at one assumed micro-to-macro ratio and one assumed particle mass · outcome: partial
controls[3]0.95the tagger's words
controlsapplying the same model to coastal populations, so the new estimate could be placed against the existing coastal one on its own terms
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
eliminates: a river estimate and a coastal estimate that cannot be compared because they were produced by different models · outcome: held
controls[4]0.95the tagger's words
controlsthe hydrological model's discharge predictions checked against observations in 66 basins worldwide
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
eliminates: a plastic flux resting on modelled discharge that was never checked against a gauge · outcome: partial
controls[5]0.95the tagger's words
conceptsmass balance
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
also in: mass balance
concepts[0]0.95the paper's words
conceptsMPW
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
also in: MPW
concepts[1]0.95the paper's words
conceptsartificial barriers
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
concepts[2]0.95the paper's words
conceptscatchment runoff
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
concepts[3]0.85the paper's words
conceptsbuoyant plastics
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
concepts[4]0.95the paper's words
conceptsmacro-plastic
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
also in: macro-plastic
concepts[5]0.95the paper's words
conceptsYangtze River
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
also in: Yangtze River
concepts[6]0.95the paper's words
conceptscoastal populations
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
concepts[7]0.95the paper's words
conceptssensitivity analysis
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
concepts[8]0.95the paper's words
conceptsmonthly averaged runoff
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
concepts[9]0.95the paper's words
sensesmodel-observation correlation - WITH THE YANGTZE EXCLUDED as an outlier: r=0.4132, P<0.05, n=29. The value the paper uses
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
senses[0]0.95the tagger's words
sensesmodel-observation correlation - WITH THE YANGTZE INCLUDED: r=0.99, P<0.05, n=30, which the authors call much higher and biased. One data point separates the two
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
senses[1]0.95the tagger's words
sensesglobal river plastic input - COUNTING MISMANAGED WASTE DOWNSTREAM OF DAMS: 1.15-2.41 million tonnes per year. The published headline
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
senses[2]0.95the tagger's words
sensesglobal river plastic input - COUNTING WASTE UPSTREAM OF DAMS TOO: 0.76-1.55 million tonnes per year, midpoint 0.91. Same model, same data, a different decision about where a dam stops being a sink
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
senses[3]0.95the tagger's words
claim_relationsextends → the global estimate of plastic entering the ocean from coastal populations (4.8-12.7 million tonnes per year), by adding the inland contribution transported by rivers
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
claim_relations[0]0.95the tagger's words
claim_relationsqualifies → direct comparison between riverine and coastal plastic input estimates, which measure different materials by different methods
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
claim_relations[1]0.95the tagger's words
claim_relationscritiques → the state of freshwater plastic monitoring - unstandardised methodologies, incompatible reported units, and particle counts published without masses
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
claim_relations[2]0.95the tagger's words
claim_relationsbuilds-on → the local river sampling studies from Europe, Asia and the Americas that supply the 30 calibration observations across 13 rivers
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
claim_relations[3]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsbetween 1.15 and 2.41 million tonnes of plastic enters the ocean from rivers each year, with the top 20 rivers accounting for 67%
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.findings[0]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsthe model-observation correlation is 0.41 without the Yangtze and 0.99 with it - the authors call the second biased and use the first
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.findings[1]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagscounting mismanaged waste upstream of dams as well gives 0.76-1.55 million tonnes per year from the same model and data
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.findings[2]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsmore than 74.5% of the annual river plastic input occurs between May and October, driven by the East Asian monsoon
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.findings[3]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsThere is very little data to verify the model's assumption of a dominant contribution from Asian rivers.
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.findings[4]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsat least 2.8-18.6% of coastal plastic emissions occur via river transport, with a further 0.79-1.52 million tonnes per year arriving from inland
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.findings[5]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsthe ocean-plastic accounting exercise this estimate is offered as baseline data for - the reason the record joins to counts of plastic already at sea
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
also in: mass balance
content_tags.definitions[0]0.85the tagger's words
content_tagsdams and weirs, assumed by the model to act as sinks for all plastic particles - named by the authors as a major and conservative assumption
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.definitions[1]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsthe headline annual river plastic input, counting mismanaged waste downstream of dams
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.quantities[0]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsthe same model's answer when waste upstream of dams is counted too
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.quantities[1]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsthe prior estimate of plastic entering the ocean from coastal populations
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.quantities[2]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsshare of the global total from the top 20 polluting rivers
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.quantities[3]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsshare of the global total from Asian rivers
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.quantities[4]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsshare of freshwater plastic input the model treats as retained behind dams
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.quantities[5]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsPearson product-moment test
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.statistics[0]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsr=0.4132
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
also in: r=0.4132
content_tags.statistics[1]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsr=0.99
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
also in: r=0.99
content_tags.statistics[2]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsMPW
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
also in: MPW
content_tags.variables[0]0.95the tagger's words
content_tagsmonthly averaged runoff
Quotation withheld — this record is not cleared for redistribution. The sentence is in the paper at the link above.
content_tags.variables[1]0.95the tagger's words

Interpretive choices

Tags that could not be placed in the text:

What was deliberately not tagged, and why, is recorded per paper by the tagger. Where a paper has no such record, this page says so rather than implying that nothing was declined.

© 2026 Shir Sivroni · ORCID 0009-0000-2597-2824