phenomenon · claim-type · cross-domain-transfer · mechanism · claim-relation · replication-status · limitation — grounded in the full text| phenomenon | a global flux nobody had measured, whose magnitude turns out to be set by waste management and monsoon rainfall in a handful of Asian catchments— “We estimated that >74.5% of the total river plastic input occurs between May and October. Our model showed a peak in global inputs for the month of August with an estimated 228,800 (range 193,000–375,000) tonnes, and a low for the month of January with 46,200 (range 34,200–87,500) tonnes. These seasonal findings were mainly driven by the… | |
| claim-type | existence— “We estimate that between 1.15 and 2.41 million tonnes of plastic waste currently enters the ocean every year from rivers, with over 74% of emissions occurring between May and October. The top 20 polluting rivers, mostly located in Asia, account for 67% of the global total.” | |
| method — evidence | — “River plastic mass concentrations from the literature (Table 3) demonstrated a statistically significant, positive correlation with the product of annual MPW production rates inside a catchment area downstream of artificial barriers and monthly averaged catchment runoff (Pearson product-moment test, r=0.4132, P<0.05, n=29). The correlation… | |
| object of study — evidence | — “We estimate that between 1.15 and 2.41 million tonnes of plastic waste currently enters the ocean every year from rivers, with over 74% of emissions occurring between May and October. The top 20 polluting rivers, mostly located in Asia, account for 67% of the global total.” | |
| research question — evidence | — “While a quantification of land-based inputs from coastal populations (<50 km from coastline) worldwide already exists, no global assessment of contributions from inland populations through riverine systems has been proposed to date.” | |
| contribution — evidence | — “We estimate that between 1.15 and 2.41 million tonnes of plastic waste currently enters the ocean every year from rivers, with over 74% of emissions occurring between May and October. The top 20 polluting rivers, mostly located in Asia, account for 67% of the global total.” | |
| transfer | from hydrology: land-surface hydrology - the GLDAS/NOAH runoff model built for terrestrial water and energy budgets - carried into a plastic-transport estimate as the seasonality term— “Nonetheless, it is important to notice that comparisons between river discharge predictions from GLDAS and observations in 66 basins worldwide demonstrated that predictions are somewhat dryer than observations. The authors of this validation study attributed the differences to uncertainties in precipitation rates.” | transfers[0] |
| transfer | from oceanography: mean particle masses and the micro-to-macro ratio measured in the open ocean, carried into rivers to convert particle counts into mass where studies reported only counts— “Not all studies considered here reported micro- and macro-plastic concentrations at surface waters of rivers. As such, for our midpoint estimate, we homogenized our data set using the mean ratio micro- to macro-plastic numerical concentration from studies reporting both types (mean ratio equals to 0.04). For comparison, a study compiling… | transfers[1] |
| mechanism | runoff as the transport term mismanaged waste sits on land until rainfall mobilises it; surface runoff both introduces new plastic to the river during heavy rain and remobilises deposited particles during floods, so input tracks the monsoon rather than the population— “We estimated that >74.5% of the total river plastic input occurs between May and October. Our model showed a peak in global inputs for the month of August with an estimated 228,800 (range 193,000–375,000) tonnes, and a low for the month of January with 46,200 (range 34,200–87,500) tonnes. These seasonal findings were mainly driven by the… | mechanisms[0] |
| mechanism | dams as accumulation sinks an artificial barrier intercepts surface plastic, so the load reaching the river mouth reflects only the catchment area downstream of the last dam - which is why moving that boundary changes the global total— “Artificial barriers in rivers may retain 65% of the global input into freshwater, as we calculated an annual 2.13–4.46 million tonnes of plastic introduced upstream of dams that are not accounted as input into the oceans by our model.” | mechanisms[1] |
| mechanism | outlier leverage on a fitted correlation one catchment with plastic concentrations orders of magnitude above every other sampled river dominates a regression across 30 points, so including it raises the correlation from 0.41 to 0.99 without the model having improved— “River plastic mass concentrations from the literature (Table 3) demonstrated a statistically significant, positive correlation with the product of annual MPW production rates inside a catchment area downstream of artificial barriers and monthly averaged catchment runoff (Pearson product-moment test, r=0.4132, P<0.05, n=29). The correlation… | mechanisms[2] |
| extends | the global estimate of plastic entering the ocean from coastal populations (4.8-12.7 million tonnes per year), by adding the inland contribution transported by rivers— “It has been estimated that between 4.8 and 12.7 million tonnes of plastic enters the ocean every year from coastal populations worldwide. Plastics within coastal areas however do not only enter the oceans through rivers. It can also reach oceans by other processes such as direct littering near beaches, followed by tidal or wind… | claim_relations[0] |
| qualifies | direct comparison between riverine and coastal plastic input estimates, which measure different materials by different methods— “It is also important to note that our model is calibrated against buoyant plastics found on river surface waters, whereas this previous coastal contribution assessment considers all types of plastics found in municipal waste.” | claim_relations[1] |
| critiques | the state of freshwater plastic monitoring - unstandardised methodologies, incompatible reported units, and particle counts published without masses— “Methodologies and reported units should be better standardized, as these vary widely across assessments. Furthermore, plastics should not be regarded as a generic material but must be classified into classes (for example, polymer types, debris sizes).” | claim_relations[2] |
| builds-on | the local river sampling studies from Europe, Asia and the Americas that supply the 30 calibration observations across 13 rivers— “Overall, observed plastic concentrations differ by several orders of magnitude in between sampled rivers, with studies suggesting that… | claim_relations[3] |
| sense | model-observation correlation - WITH THE YANGTZE EXCLUDED as an outlier: r=0.4132, P<0.05, n=29. The value the paper uses Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | senses[0] |
| sense | model-observation correlation - WITH THE YANGTZE INCLUDED: r=0.99, P<0.05, n=30, which the authors call much higher and biased. One data point separates the two Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | senses[1] |
| sense | global river plastic input - COUNTING MISMANAGED WASTE DOWNSTREAM OF DAMS: 1.15-2.41 million tonnes per year. The published headline Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | senses[2] |
| sense | global river plastic input - COUNTING WASTE UPSTREAM OF DAMS TOO: 0.76-1.55 million tonnes per year, midpoint 0.91. Same model, same data, a different decision about where a dam stops being a sink Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | senses[3] |
| control | removing the Yangtze measurement as an outlier before testing the model-observation correlation, rather than reporting the flattering fit — held Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. — rules out a model-observation correlation carried by one extreme measurement Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | controls[0] |
| control | re-deriving the regression with mismanaged waste counted upstream of dams as well, to test whether the global answer depends on where a dam is treated as a sink — partial Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. — rules out a global input figure that depends on whether a dam is treated as a sink Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | controls[1] |
| control | choosing monthly rather than yearly averaged runoff, tested against the observed flux inputs instead of assumed — held Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. — rules out a runoff averaging window chosen because it fits, rather than because it predicts the observed flux Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | controls[2] |
| control | a sensitivity analysis over the micro/macro ratio and mean particle masses, using the ranges observed at sea — partial Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. — rules out a mass estimate that holds only at one assumed micro-to-macro ratio and one assumed particle mass Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | controls[3] |
| control | applying the same model to coastal populations, so the new estimate could be placed against the existing coastal one on its own terms — held Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. — rules out a river estimate and a coastal estimate that cannot be compared because they were produced by different models Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | controls[4] |
| control | the hydrological model's discharge predictions checked against observations in 66 basins worldwide — partial Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. — rules out a plastic flux resting on modelled discharge that was never checked against a gauge Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | controls[5] |
| weight | the global estimate of plastic entering the ocean from coastal populations (4.8-12.7 million tonnes per year), by adding the inland contribution transported by rivers — 0.9 Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | claim_relations[0] |
| weight | direct comparison between riverine and coastal plastic input estimates, which measure different materials by different methods — 0.9 Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | claim_relations[1] |
| weight | the state of freshwater plastic monitoring - unstandardised methodologies, incompatible reported units, and particle counts published without masses — 0.9 Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | claim_relations[2] |
| weight | the local river sampling studies from Europe, Asia and the Americas that supply the 30 calibration observations across 13 rivers — 0.85 Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | claim_relations[3] |
| outcome | control — held Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | controls[0] |
| outcome | control — partial Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | controls[1] |
| outcome | control — held Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | controls[2] |
| outcome | control — partial Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | controls[3] |
| outcome | control — held Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | controls[4] |
| outcome | control — partial Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | controls[5] |
| limitation | the model rests on the assumption that dams intercept ALL plastic, which the authors name as a major assumption; 2.13-4.46 million tonnes per year is generated upstream of dams and simply not counted Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | limitations[0] |
| limitation | there is very little data to document the assumptions about Asian contributions or to thoroughly verify the validity of the model - stated by the authors about the region that supplies 86% of their total Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | limitations[1] |
| limitation | the estimate covers only the sampled size spectrum - nothing below the net mesh, nothing above the trawl aperture, nothing below the sampled depth - so it is conservative by construction Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | limitations[2] |
| limitation | the global prediction doubles from the lower to the upper estimate once the extrapolation uncertainties in the calibration dataset are propagated Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | limitations[3] |
| limitation | studies reporting only particle counts were converted to mass using a mean micro/macro ratio and mean particle masses measured AT SEA, not in rivers - an extrapolation the authors name as a limitation of the calibration Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | limitations[4] |
| limitation | the hydrological model's discharge predictions are known to run dryer than observations across 66 basins, attributed to precipitation uncertainty Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | limitations[5] |
| limitation | observed plastic concentrations differ by several orders of magnitude between sampled rivers, and sampling designs, devices and reported units vary substantially - so the calibration set is heterogeneous before any model is fitted Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | limitations[6] |
finding · quantity · variable · definition · key-term — grounded in the full text| finding | Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | content_tags.findings[0] |
| finding | Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | content_tags.findings[1] |
| finding | Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | content_tags.findings[2] |
| finding | Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | content_tags.findings[3] |
| finding | Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | content_tags.findings[4] |
| finding | Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | content_tags.findings[5] |
| quantity | the headline annual river plastic input, counting mismanaged waste downstream of dams Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | content_tags.quantities[0] |
| quantity | the same model's answer when waste upstream of dams is counted too Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | content_tags.quantities[1] |
| quantity | the prior estimate of plastic entering the ocean from coastal populations Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | content_tags.quantities[2] |
| quantity | share of the global total from the top 20 polluting rivers Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | content_tags.quantities[3] |
| quantity | share of the global total from Asian rivers Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | content_tags.quantities[4] |
| quantity | share of freshwater plastic input the model treats as retained behind dams Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | content_tags.quantities[5] |
| variable | MPW Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | content_tags.variables[0] |
| variable | monthly averaged runoff Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | content_tags.variables[1] |
| definition | mass balance Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | content_tags.definitions[0] |
| definition | artificial barriers Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | content_tags.definitions[1] |
| concept | mass balance — not defined in this paper's own words; the ocean-plastic accounting exercise this estimate is explicitly offered as an input to - the join to records that count plastic already at sea Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | concepts[0] |
| concept | MPW — not defined in this paper's own words; mismanaged plastic waste - the model's driver, and the quantity whose accounting boundary at dams moves the global answer by a third Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | concepts[1] |
| concept | artificial barriers — not defined in this paper's own words; dams and weirs, treated by the model as perfect sinks that intercept all surface plastic - a conservative assumption the paper names as major Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | concepts[2] |
| concept | catchment runoff — not defined in this paper's own words; the monthly-averaged hydrological term that carries the seasonality, and which correlates better with observations than the yearly average Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | concepts[3] |
| concept | buoyant plastics — not defined in this paper's own words; what the calibration data actually sample - surface-water plastic, which is why this estimate and the coastal one are not the same quantity Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | concepts[4] |
| concept | macro-plastic — not defined in this paper's own words; the larger size class; related to micro-plastic here by a mean numerical ratio of 0.04 extrapolated from the studies that reported both, against 0.07 measured at sea Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | concepts[5] |
| concept | Yangtze River — not defined in this paper's own words; the largest single contributing catchment, and the measurement removed as an outlier before the correlation test - it is both the finding and the problem Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | concepts[6] |
| concept | coastal populations — not defined in this paper's own words; the population of the prior global estimate (4.8-12.7 Mt/yr), which counts all municipal plastic rather than buoyant river-surface plastic Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | concepts[7] |
| concept | sensitivity analysis — not defined in this paper's own words; varying the micro/macro ratio and mean particle masses across the ranges observed at sea, which is where the published upper and lower bounds come from Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | concepts[8] |
| concept | monthly averaged runoff — not defined in this paper's own words; chosen over the yearly average because it correlated better with the observed flux inputs Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | concepts[9] |
| Pearson product-moment test | Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | content_tags.statistics[0] |
| r=0.4132 | Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | content_tags.statistics[1] |
| r=0.99 | Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher. | content_tags.statistics[2] |
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