Evidence that the Great Pacific Garbage Patch is rapidly accumulating plastic — TEI-tagged view

Laurent Lebreton, Boyan Slat, Francesco F. Ferrari, Bruno Sainte-Rose, Jennifer Aitken, Robert Marthouse, Sara Hajbane, Serena Cunsolo, Anna Schwarz, Aurore Levivier, Kim Noble, Pavla Debeljak, Hannah Maral, Rosanna I. Schoeneich-Argent, Roberto Brambini, Júlia Reisser · 2018 · environmental-science · doi:10.1038/s41598-018-22939-w · TEI xml · tagged edition · index · concepts · authors
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Other fields define these differently the same word, defined another way in another discipline
microplastics 2 fields
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GPGP microplastics15 megaplastics windage coefficient ghostnets Manta trawl aerial imagery mass concentration numerical concentration ENSO3 biofouling2 field-study17
Method, as described: 652 Manta and Mega net tows from 18 vessels, 7,298 georeferenced aerial mosaics, depth-integrated concentration corrections, and a Lagrangian transport model calibrated on ENSO/PDO-matched years rather than on a flat multi-year average

Our tag layer for this paper

Cross-disciplinary analysis
content-tags & facets: phenomenon · claim-type · cross-domain-transfer · mechanism · claim-relation · replication-status · limitation — grounded in the full text
phenomenonaccumulation of buoyant plastic in a subtropical gyre, dominated by mass in objects large enough that a plankton net was never going to see them— “More than three quarters of the GPGP plastic mass was contained in the upper size classes (>5 cm), with a respective total contribution of 25% and 53% for macroplastics and megaplastics (Fig. 4a). Plastic types ‘H’ (hard plastics, sheets and films) and ‘N’ (nets, ropes and lines) represented respectively 47% and 52% of the total GPGP…
claim-typeexistence— “We predicted that the GPGP contains a total of 1.8 (mid-point estimate, low: 1.1, high: 3.6) trillion plastic pieces weighing 79 k (45 k−129 k) tonnes, comprised of debris categorised in 4 size classes: microplastics (0.05–0.5 cm), mesoplastics (0.5–5 cm), macroplastics (5–50 cm), and megaplastics (>50 cm).”
method — evidence— “From July 27th to September 19th 2015, a total of 652 surface net tows were carried out between 25°N–41°N and 129–156°W by 18 participating vessels. In October 2016, we revisited our study area by conducting two flights with a Hercules C-130 aircraft that collected aerial imagery (n = 7,298 single-frame mosaics) to better quantify the larger…
object of study — evidence— “We predicted that the GPGP contains a total of 1.8 (mid-point estimate, low: 1.1, high: 3.6) trillion plastic pieces weighing 79 k (45 k−129 k) tonnes, comprised of debris categorised in 4 size classes: microplastics (0.05–0.5 cm), mesoplastics (0.5–5 cm), macroplastics (5–50 cm), and megaplastics (>50 cm).”
research question — evidence— “Most available data on quantities and characteristics of buoyant ocean plastic are derived from samples collected with small sea surface trawls initially developed to collect neustonic plankton. Due to their small aperture (0.5–1 m width, 0.15–1 m depth) and limited surface area covered, they could underestimate loads of rarer and larger…
contribution — evidence— “Our plastic mass estimate for the GPGP (~79 k tonnes) was nearly sixteen times higher than a previous study (~4.8 k tonnes) that used net trawl data only and four times higher than another assessment (~21 k tonnes) that combined net trawl data with vessel-based visual surveys. We suggest that the increase in the estimate is mainly explained…
transferfrom physical oceanography: Lagrangian particle advection with wave, wind and current forcing, carried from physical oceanography into an inventory of manufactured debris— “As buoyant plastics can be missed by surface trawls due to wind-driven mixing, we then estimated the ‘depth-integrated’ mass and numerical plastic concentrations (Ci) for all type/size categories at each of the trawl sampling locations using the equations described in ref.. Supplementary Methods 1 provides details on how Ci was calculated as…transfers[0]
transferfrom disaster response and beach monitoring: a dated, located mass release - the 2011 Tohoku tsunami - used as a natural tracer experiment to constrain a transport parameter— “The dependence of the particle trajectory on the windage coefficient predicted by our model is in good agreement with sightings and modelling of debris originated from the 2011 Tohoku tsunami in Japan. The first identified Japanese debris items that arrived after 10 to 12 months on the North American shores were objects with high windage such…transfers[1]
mechanisman aperture deciding an abundance the standard instrument is a 90 cm net developed for plankton, covering 0.008 km2 per tow; rare metre-scale objects carry most of the mass and are almost never inside such a sample, so the measured mass is a function of how much sea surface the instrument sees rather than of how much plastic is there— “Most available data on quantities and characteristics of buoyant ocean plastic are derived from samples collected with small sea surface trawls initially developed to collect neustonic plankton. Due to their small aperture (0.5–1 m width, 0.15–1 m depth) and limited surface area covered, they could underestimate loads of rarer and larger…mechanisms[0]
mechanismvolume-to-surface ratio as a survival filter films are about 37% of PE and PP waste and are rarely found here; the paper's hypothesis is that thin objects foul, sink or fragment quickly, so the patch contains not the plastic that enters the ocean but the subset able to stay at the surface— “Firstly, the vast majority of the collected GPGP objects were made of PE and PP rigid plastics and bundled fishing nets and ropes. Plastic films however, representing around 37% of PE and PP waste generation, were rarely found. We hypothesize that most buoyant plastic with insufficient volume-to-surface ratios such as films may never reach…mechanisms[1]
mechanismwindage sorting the debris by where it ends up particles displaced by a fraction of wind speed take wider orbits, are more likely to strand and more likely to leave the gyre; low-windage objects stay - which is why the best-fitting model has no wind term and why foam is abundant on Alaskan beaches and negligible in the patch— “Finally, it seems that most plastics accumulating in the GPGP region are hardly transported by winds. Our model predicted that the GPGP is dominated by objects with low or null windage coefficient, and it was the null windage forcing scenario that best represented the GPGP plastic concentrations gradients measured in this study. Furthermore…mechanisms[2]
mechanisma moving target averaged into blur the patch's centre oscillates seasonally in longitude and inter-annually in latitude with ENSO and PDO, so calibrating measurements from one season against a flat multi-year average compares them with a smear rather than with a position - matching the climate indices of the sampling year improved the fit from 0.46 to 0.58— “The relation between the accumulation of marine debris in the North Pacific and climate events such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has previously been discussed. As such, to account for inter-annual variation, we compared latitudinal and longitudinal position of the GPGP against these two…mechanisms[3]
qualifies the two previous GPGP mass estimates, 4.8 k tonnes from net trawls alone and 21 k tonnes from trawls plus vessel sightings - attributed here mainly to weaker quantification of large debris, with a real increase in pollution named as an alternative— “Our plastic mass estimate for the GPGP (~79 k tonnes) was nearly sixteen times higher than a previous study (~4.8 k tonnes) that used net trawl data only and four times higher than another assessment (~21 k tonnes) that combined net trawl data with vessel-based visual surveys. We suggest that the increase in the estimate is mainly explained…claim_relations[0]
critiques surface trawls developed for neustonic plankton, whose 0.5-1 m aperture cannot represent rarer and larger objects such as bottles, buoys and fishing nets— “Most available data on quantities and characteristics of buoyant ocean plastic are derived from samples collected with small sea surface trawls initially developed to collect neustonic plankton. Due to their small aperture (0.5–1 m width, 0.15–1 m depth) and limited surface area covered, they could underestimate loads of rarer and larger…claim_relations[1]
critiques ocean plastic transport models integrated over several years and calibrated against datasets from different seasons and decades, which misrepresent processes that vary seasonally and inter-annually— “The relation between the accumulation of marine debris in the North Pacific and climate events such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has previously been discussed. As such, to account for inter-annual variation, we compared latitudinal and longitudinal position of the GPGP against these two…claim_relations[2]
qualifies its own inventory - the estimates are conservative on three separate counts, and high-windage debris passing through the region is not captured by a monthly average— “It is important to highlight here that our mass estimates are conservative. Most of our sampling effort were conducted inside the GPGP boundary line defined in this study. Although concentrations decreased by orders of magnitude as we moved away from the GPGP centre, when considering the outer GPGP (0.1 kg km−2 microplastic contour level…claim_relations[3]
qualifies accepted global plastic input budgets, which its own model turns into a prediction two orders of magnitude above what the surveys found— “Despite an increase in the GPGP mass estimate, a great discrepancy between predicted and observed ocean plastic concentrations remains. Considering…claim_relations[4]
senseGPGP plastic mass - MEASURED BY NET TRAWLS ALONE: about 4.8 thousand tonnes, from instruments developed to collect neustonic plankton
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senses[0]
senseGPGP plastic mass - NET TRAWLS PLUS VESSEL SIGHTINGS: about 21 thousand tonnes, at the cost of high uncertainty in estimating a sighted object's mass
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senses[1]
senseGPGP plastic mass - NET TRAWLS PLUS MEGA TRAWLS PLUS 311 km2 OF AERIAL IMAGERY: 79 (45-129) thousand tonnes, this study
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senses[2]
sensewhat dominates the patch - BY MASS: megaplastics and macroplastics, over three quarters of it, and 86% of the megaplastic mass is fishing nets
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senses[3]
sensewhat dominates the patch - BY COUNT: microplastics, 94% of 1.8 trillion pieces and only 8% of the mass
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senses[4]
sensehow much plastic should be there - AS THE MODEL PREDICTS FROM ACCEPTED INPUTS: millions of tonnes
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senses[5]
sensehow much plastic should be there - AS FOUND IN THE WATER: tens of thousands of tonnes, a two-orders-of-magnitude shortfall the paper leaves open
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senses[6]
controltwo Manta and two large Neuston trawls towed simultaneously at the same 76 stations, and the paired results used to decide which device quantifies which size band — held
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— rules out net aperture as the source of the reported size distribution - a single device cannot tell whether the sizes it misses are absent or merely uncaught
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controls[0]
control311 km2 surveyed from the air against 3.9 and 13.6 km2 by Manta and Mega tow, for the size class whose rarity is the whole problem — held
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— rules out rarity being mistaken for absence - at trawl coverage a >50 cm object is a sampling accident, and the mass it carries cannot be estimated from its absence
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controls[1]
controlan experimental detection algorithm run over all 7,298 mosaics after the human pass, with every algorithm hit re-inspected by an observer before entering the database — partial
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— rules out observer oversight as the only check on the imagery, without letting the algorithm introduce false positives of its own
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controls[2]
controlsix forcing scenarios - current only, and 0.1 to 3% windage - each fitted against the same 277 cells of measured microplastic concentration — held
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— rules out the chosen transport physics being assumed rather than selected; the regression coefficient falls monotonically as wind forcing is added, so the data picks
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controls[3]
controlthree calibration windows tried in sequence - a flat 12-year average, a season-matched average, and an ENSO/PDO-matched pair of years - with the fit reported for each — held
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— rules out an averaging window flattering the fit - the season-matched version was WORSE than the flat average and is reported as such before the better one is adopted
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controls[4]
controlmeasured microplastic concentrations sorted by whether they fell inside or outside the modelled 1 kg km-2 contour, as a test of the boundary the model drew — held
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— rules out a boundary drawn to fit the story - the contrast is measured, 1.8 against 0.3 kg km-2 in the medians, rather than asserted from the map
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controls[5]
controlthe model's windage behaviour checked against the recorded arrival times and object types of 2011 Tohoku tsunami debris on North American and Hawaiian shores — held
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— rules out the windage parameterisation being unconstrained by any real trajectory - the tsunami provides a dated release of known objects that the model must reproduce
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controls[6]
controlexponential, linear, quadratic and cubic fits to the decadal concentration averages, with the coefficient of determination given for all four — held
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— rules out the exponential being chosen because it makes the stronger claim - the three alternatives are fitted and their worse fits reported
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controls[7]
controlhistorical net tows sorted into inside-boundary, outside-but-subtropical, and rest-of-North-Pacific, with the third category excluded from the comparison — held
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— rules out equatorial and polar samples deflating the around-the-patch baseline and manufacturing a contrast between inside and outside
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controls[8]
controldepth-integrated concentrations computed for every trawl station as a function of rising velocity, trawl depth and sea state, to correct for wind-driven mixing — held — rules out buoyant plastic missed by a surface trawl because wind-driven mixing pushed it below the net
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controls[9]
controlall trawls designed to move away from the vessel so that wake would not affect capture efficiency — partial — rules out vessel wake disturbing the water the net samples - the trawls were angled away to reduce it, and the paper says the effect remained
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controls[10]
weightthe two previous GPGP mass estimates, 4.8 k tonnes from net trawls alone and 21 k tonnes from trawls plus vessel sightings - attributed here mainly to weaker quantification of large debris, with a real increase in pollution named as an alternative — 0.95
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claim_relations[0]
weightsurface trawls developed for neustonic plankton, whose 0.5-1 m aperture cannot represent rarer and larger objects such as bottles, buoys and fishing nets — 0.95
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claim_relations[1]
weightocean plastic transport models integrated over several years and calibrated against datasets from different seasons and decades, which misrepresent processes that vary seasonally and inter-annually — 0.9
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claim_relations[2]
weightits own inventory - the estimates are conservative on three separate counts, and high-windage debris passing through the region is not captured by a monthly average — 0.95
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claim_relations[3]
weightaccepted global plastic input budgets, which its own model turns into a prediction two orders of magnitude above what the surveys found — 0.9
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claim_relations[4]
outcomecontrol — held
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controls[0]
outcomecontrol — held
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controls[1]
outcomecontrol — partial
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controls[2]
outcomecontrol — held
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controls[3]
outcomecontrol — held
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controls[4]
outcomecontrol — held
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controls[5]
outcomecontrol — held
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controls[6]
outcomecontrol — held
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controls[7]
outcomecontrol — held
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controls[8]
outcome (stated by the tagger, no quotation)control — held
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controls[9]
outcome (stated by the tagger, no quotation)control — partial
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controls[10]
limitationthe four-to-sixteen-fold increase over previous estimates could also be a real increase in pollution rather than a method difference, and the paper says so
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limitations[0]
limitationthe model predicts millions of tonnes in the region from accepted inputs while the surveys found tens of thousands - a two-orders-of-magnitude gap left open
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limitations[1]
limitationthe aerial survey deliberately trades false positives for false negatives: observers logged only what they were very confident about, so many possible debris features were never recorded
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limitations[2]
limitationthe mass estimates are conservative by construction - sampling concentrated inside the boundary, and the outer patch is modelled at over 100k tonnes
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limitations[3]
limitationhigh-windage debris passing through the patch over longer periods is underestimated, because a monthly average spreads it over a larger area
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limitations[4]
limitationboth trawls were towed at an angle so the sampled width is likely smaller than the net width used in the area calculation, and vessel wake probably affected capture
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limitations[5]
limitationdebris may have broken during transport to the laboratory, biasing the size distribution
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limitations[6]
limitationthe degradation rate of synthetic polymers at sea is poorly understood, so how long the standing mass will persist cannot be estimated
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limitations[7]
limitationplastic levels in the deep water and seafloor below the patch are unknown, so the inventory is of one layer only
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limitations[8]
limitationthe 28.1% marine-source share is taken from coastal clean-up data and observations at sea may imply much higher losses, so the source attribution may be wrong in either direction
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limitations[9]
Content tags
content-observations: finding · quantity · variable · definition · key-term — grounded in the full text
finding
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content_tags.findings[0]
finding
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content_tags.findings[1]
finding
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content_tags.findings[2]
finding
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content_tags.findings[3]
finding
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content_tags.findings[4]
finding
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content_tags.findings[5]
finding
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content_tags.findings[6]
finding
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content_tags.findings[7]
quantityEVIDENCE CORRECTED (RE-GROUNDED - THE POINTER WAS WRONG, NOT THE CLAIM) · thousand tonnes of floating plastic in the GPGP, mid-point of a 45-129 k range
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content_tags.quantities[0]
retractedquantity — RE-GROUNDED - THE POINTER WAS WRONG, NOT THE CLAIM. The old evidence was verbatim, anchored and correctly cut, and it contained NONE of this claim's numbers (129, 45). The paper states the claim in one sentence elsewhere and the tagger did not use it. the project, 2026-08-23: 'WE HAVE SPENT THE DAY VERIFYING THAT QUOTES ARE REAL AND NONE OF IT ASKS WHETHER THEY ARE RELEVANT.' Confirmed by reading the claim, the old span and the candidate together; the candidate carries every number AND the claim's own content words.content_tags.quantities[0]
quantitymicroplastics' share of the GPGP mass - against 94% of its pieces
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content_tags.quantities[1]
quantitymicroplastics' share of the 1.8 trillion pieces - against 8% of the mass
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content_tags.quantities[2]
quantitykg km-2, the mean megaplastic mass concentration - the highest of the four size classes, at 3.5 pieces km-2
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content_tags.quantities[3]
quantitypieces km-2 of microplastics - the highest count of the four size classes, at 2.5 kg km-2
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content_tags.quantities[4]
variablemass concentration
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content_tags.variables[0]
variablewindage coefficient
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content_tags.variables[1]
definitionGPGP
Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher.
content_tags.definitions[0]
definitionwindage coefficient
Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher.
content_tags.definitions[1]
Concepts
terms this paper carries, each with the sentence it was cut from — the layer that joins one paper to another. Terms with no quote yet are on CONCEPTS.html.
conceptGPGP — not defined in this paper's own words; the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, defined here operationally as the 1 kg km-2 modelled microplastic contour, 1.6 million km2, whose position moves with season and with ENSO and PDO
Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher.
concepts[0]
conceptmicroplastics — not defined in this paper's own words; 0.05-0.5 cm debris; 94% of the pieces and 8% of the mass, and the only size class with enough spatial coverage to calibrate the model on
Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher.
concepts[1]
conceptmegaplastics — not defined in this paper's own words; debris over 50 cm; 3.5 pieces per km2 and the largest single mass contribution, 86% of it fishing nets
Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher.
concepts[2]
conceptwindage coefficient — not defined in this paper's own words; the fraction of 10 m wind speed a particle is displaced by; the model's best fit used 0%, and higher values sent particles out of the patch and onto coastlines
Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher.
concepts[3]
conceptghostnets — not defined in this paper's own words; lost or discarded fishing nets; the main mass contributor here, with a draft of several metres and therefore almost no wind forcing
Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher.
concepts[4]
conceptManta trawl — not defined in this paper's own words; the standard 90 cm x 15 cm plankton-derived net; 0.008 km2 covered per tow, and the instrument whose aperture the paper argues produced the earlier low estimates
Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher.
concepts[5]
conceptaerial imagery — not defined in this paper's own words; 7,298 georeferenced RGB mosaics over 311 km2 - two orders of magnitude more sea surface than the trawls, and the only instrument that can see rare large objects
Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher.
concepts[6]
conceptmass concentration — not defined in this paper's own words; kilograms of plastic per km2 of sea surface; the unit under which megaplastics dominate
Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher.
concepts[7]
conceptnumerical concentration — not defined in this paper's own words; pieces per km2; the unit under which microplastics dominate by five orders of magnitude, from the same water
Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher.
concepts[8]
conceptENSO — not defined in this paper's own words; El Nino Southern Oscillation - one of two climate indices the patch's position tracks, and the reason the model is calibrated on 2002 and 2004 rather than on a flat average
Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher.
concepts[9]
conceptbiofouling — not defined in this paper's own words; growth on a floating particle that costs it buoyancy; one of the proposed sinks for the plastic the model says should be here and is not
Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher.
concepts[10]
Statistics — cross-field join keys
field-invariant statistical terms, used in their statistical sense (gated on a number / symbol / test). A p-value or a standard deviation means the SAME thing in physics, biology, psychology and sociology — so these are the strongest cross-field join keys. Grounded verbatim.
R2
Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher.
content_tags.statistics[0]
SE
Quotation withheld — this paper is not ours to reproduce, and the page has already quoted as much of it as the rights layer allows. The tag, its field and its confidence stand; the sentence is at the publisher.
content_tags.statistics[1]

When we have changed our mind. Some entries in the table begin with a word in capitals and the reason for it. EVIDENCE CORRECTED — the finding still stands, but we had quoted the wrong sentence from the paper, and the quotation has been replaced with the right one. RETRACTED — the entry itself was wrong; it stays on the page, marked, with the reason, rather than being deleted. WITHDRAWN AND REPLACED — the entry was wrong, and a corrected version of it appears in the entries below. Each mark carries its own reason, in brackets, because the reasons differ from one entry to the next. An entry we have WITHDRAWN is removed from this page and kept in the record, with its reason. A line reading Audit and a date is a later re-reading of the entry against its whole sentence: DOUBTFUL means it was kept, and the reason says what is loose about it. Quotation marks inside the tagger's sentence. Where a tag is the tagger's own sentence, a phrase in quotation marks inside it is borrowed from the paper — the tagger's wording around it is not. The paper's own sentence is the evidence quote for that row; on this page it is withheld with the article, and the article is at its publisher. Nothing inside quotation marks anywhere on this page is ours: if it is quoted, it is the paper's. Whose words a concept carries. A concept entry records a term the paper itself uses, so the term, the sense given for it, and its evidence are the paper's own words, quoted where the paper fixes them. This is the opposite of a sense entry in the tag table, which is the tagger's sentence about how the paper uses a term. Where a concept entry could not be grounded in the paper's words, the entry says so on its own row.

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